大越期货沥青期货早报-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side shows that refineries have reduced production, alleviating supply pressure. The demand is currently below the historical average level. The cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term, and the asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the range of 3005 - 3053 for the 2601 contract [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. The positive factor is that the relatively high crude oil cost provides some support, while the negative factors include insufficient demand for high - price goods and a downward trend in overall demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: Supply - side: In November 2025, the total planned output of asphalt from local refineries is 1.312 million tons, a 18.2% month - on - month increase and a 6.5% year - on - year decrease. The capacity utilization rate is 31.8792%, a 1.44 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month. The sample enterprise output is 532,000 tons, a 4.31% decrease month - on - month, and the estimated device maintenance volume is 745,000 tons, a 22.53% increase month - on - month. Demand - side: The开工 rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and modified asphalt are generally lower than the historical average, while the开工 rates of road - modified asphalt and waterproofing membranes are higher. Cost - side: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 576.02 yuan/ton, a 4.10% increase month - on - month, and the weekly delayed coking profit in Shandong local refineries is 799.3871 yuan/ton, a 34.46% increase month - on - month. The overall fundamentals are bearish [8]. - Basis: On November 13, the spot price in Shandong was 3010 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 19 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a neutral situation [8]. - Inventory: The social inventory is 897,000 tons, a 4.26% decrease month - on - month; the in - factory inventory is 641,000 tons, a 6.42% decrease month - on - month; and the port - diluted asphalt inventory is 160,000 tons, a 20.00% decrease month - on - month. All types of inventories are in a continuous destocking state, showing a neutral situation [8]. - Market: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes below the MA20, showing a bearish situation [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish situation [8]. - Expectation: Considering refinery production cuts, low demand, stable inventory, and weakening crude oil, the cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term. The asphalt 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3005 - 3053 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Various contract prices, basis, inventory, and production data show different degrees of decline. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 1.11% to 3029 yuan/ton, the social inventory decreased by 4.27% to 89.7 million tons, and the sample enterprise output decreased by 4.32% to 53.2 million tons [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Basis Trend: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis from 2020 to 2025, which helps in analyzing the relationship between spot and futures prices [18][20]. - Main Contract Spread: The trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is useful for spread trading analysis [23]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas crude oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented, showing the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [26]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: The crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025 are shown, reflecting the refining profit margins [29][30]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio: The historical price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented, providing insights into the relative value of these commodities [34]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: - Asphalt Profit: The historical asphalt profit trends from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the profitability of asphalt production [39]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread: The historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which is important for refineries to make production decisions [42]. - Supply - Side Analysis: - Shipment Volume: The historical shipment volumes of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 to 2025 are presented, showing the supply - side shipment situation [45]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The historical port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2021 to 2025 is shown, reflecting the supply - side inventory status [47]. - Production Volume: The weekly and monthly production volumes from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the overall supply - side production situation [50]. - Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production: The historical price of Marine crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which are important factors affecting asphalt production [55]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: The historical production of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is presented, showing the supply - side production capacity of local refineries [57]. - Capacity Utilization Rate: The historical capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 is shown, reflecting the supply - side production efficiency [60]. - Maintenance Loss Estimation: The historical maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 is presented, showing the impact of refinery maintenance on supply [63]. - Inventory Analysis: - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: The historical data of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the inventory situation in the futures market [66]. - Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory: The historical social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 are shown, reflecting the overall inventory status [70]. - In - Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio: The historical in - factory inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2025 is presented, showing the inventory management efficiency of refineries [73]. - Import and Export Analysis: The historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the international trade situation of asphalt [76]. - Demand - Side Analysis: - Petroleum Coke Production: The historical production of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 is presented, showing the demand - side situation of related products [82]. - Apparent Consumption: The historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is shown, reflecting the overall market demand [85]. - Downstream Demand: The historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the downstream demand situation [88][89]. - Downstream Machinery Demand: The historical sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers from 2019 to 2025 are presented, as well as the monthly working hours of excavators, showing the demand - side equipment utilization [93][95]. - Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate: The historical capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, and other types from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the demand - side production activity [97][100]. - Downstream Capacity Utilization: The historical capacity utilization rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the downstream production activity [102][104]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to November 2025 is presented, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data, showing the overall supply - demand relationship [107].