大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with supply outstripping demand due to capacity mismatches, making it difficult to reverse the downward trend [13]. - The lithium carbonate 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 86,540 - 89,140 yuan/ton [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,545 tons, a 0.05% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - Demand: The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week, with the former rising 0.70% to 105,719 tons and the latter 3.51% to 19,553 tons [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased, resulting in losses in production. The cost of the salt - lake end is significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - Fundamentals: Neutral; Basis: On November 13, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 84,350 yuan/ton, with a 01 - contract basis of - 3,490 yuan/ton, indicating a spot discount to futures, which is bearish; Inventory: The overall inventory decreased by 2.80% to 120,472 tons, with the smelter inventory decreasing by 7.96% to 28,270 tons and the downstream inventory decreasing by 6.22% to 48,772 tons, which is neutral [9]. - Market Outlook: Bullish factors include manufacturers' production reduction plans, a decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile, and a decrease in lithium spodumene imports; bearish factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline and weak acceptance willingness at the power battery end [11][12]. 3.2 Market Overview - The prices of most lithium - related products increased. For example, the price of 6% lithium spodumene increased by 1.73% to 1,001 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.26% to 84,350 yuan/ton [15]. 3.3 Supply - Side Data - Lithium Ore: The price of lithium ore increased, and the production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica showed different trends. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate increased by 10.61% to 571,500 tons, and the import volume from Australia increased significantly [17]. - Lithium Carbonate: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate increased, with the monthly production reaching 92,260 tons, a 5.73% increase. The weekly production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycled materials) showed different trends [17]. - Lithium Hydroxide: The monthly production of lithium hydroxide increased to 29,220 tons, a 6.37% increase. The monthly net export volume also increased by 13.60% to 5,053.18 tons [17]. 3.4 Demand - Side Data - Lithium Battery: The monthly production, shipment, and installation volume of lithium batteries increased. For example, the monthly production of power batteries increased by 21.60% to 76,000 GWh, and the installation volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary batteries also increased [17]. - Ternary Precursor: The monthly production of ternary precursors increased, and the price showed different trends. The 523 - type and 622 - type products had price increases [59]. - Ternary Material: The price of ternary materials increased, and the weekly and monthly production and inventory showed different trends [65]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: The price of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate increased, and the monthly production and export volume also increased [69]. - New Energy Vehicles: The production and sales volume of new energy vehicles increased, with the production volume reaching 1,772,000 vehicles, a 9.59% increase, and the sales volume reaching 1.604 million vehicles, a 14.98% increase [17]. 3.5 Inventory Data - Lithium Carbonate: The overall inventory decreased, with the smelter inventory decreasing and the downstream inventory also decreasing [9]. - Lithium Hydroxide: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide showed different trends for different sources [50]. - Ternary Precursor: The monthly inventory of ternary precursors showed different trends [59]. - Ternary Material: The weekly inventory of ternary materials showed different trends [67]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate showed different trends [74].