工业硅期货早报-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, supply-side production scheduling has decreased, demand recovery is at a low level, cost support has increased, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9055 - 9235. The inventory is bearish, the main position is net short with an increase in short positions, the basis is bullish, and the disk is bullish [6]. - For polycrystalline silicon, supply-side production scheduling continues to decrease, demand-side production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components continues to decline, overall demand shows a continuous recession, cost support is stable, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 53405 - 54985. The fundamentals are bearish, the basis is bearish, the inventory is neutral, the disk is bullish, and the main position is net short with a decrease in short positions [8]. - The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production; the main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polycrystalline silicon. The main logic is that the supply - demand mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 91,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 900%. - Demand: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 82,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.74%, and the demand continued to be sluggish. - Inventory: The polysilicon inventory was 259,000 tons, at a low level; the silicone inventory was 56,300 tons, at a low level; the alloy ingot inventory was 728,000 tons, at a high level. The social inventory was 552,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1; the sample enterprise inventory was 172,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.32%; the main port inventory was 127,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.42% [6]. - Cost: In the Xinjiang region, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 was 2,874 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the dry season increased [6]. 3.1.2 Polycrystalline Silicon - Supply: Last week, the polycrystalline silicon output was 27,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.25%. The planned production in November was 120,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.37% compared with the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 13.45GW, a month - on - month decrease of 5.54%, and the inventory was 175,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.44%. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The planned production in November was 57.66GW, a month - on - month decrease of 4.92% compared with the previous month. In October, the battery cell output was 59.27GW, a month - on - month decrease of 2.78%. Last week, the inventory of battery cell external sales factories was 5.81GW, a month - on - month increase of 50.90%. Currently, production is in a loss state. The planned production in November was 58.68GW, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%. In October, the component output was 48.1GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.60%. The estimated component output in November was 46.92GW, a month - on - month decrease of 2.45%. The domestic monthly inventory was 24.76GW, a month - on - month decrease of 51.73%, and the European monthly inventory was 35.4GW, a month - on - month increase of 5.