Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The report anticipates that the domestic methanol market will continue to operate weakly in the short - term. Inland, multiple olefin plants plan to undergo maintenance in November, traditional downstream acetic acid has low operation, and a large methanol - to - hydrogen plant in northern Shandong has stopped for maintenance, resulting in significant negative impacts on demand. With high domestic methanol operation levels and low inventory at upstream methanol plants, they are mainly focused on shipping. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease in the short - term. However, considering the current low methanol prices, cautious short - selling by traders supports the bottom price, and the expected decline is limited. In the port area, under the suppression of high overseas supply expectations and high port inventory, the port methanol market is expected to continue its weak decline this week. The report predicts that the methanol price will fluctuate weakly this week, with MA2601 expected to trade between 2075 - 2130 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Methanol 2601: - Fundamentals: With the expectation of weakening fundamentals, domestic methanol is expected to continue its weak operation in the short - term. Port methanol is also expected to decline weakly. Although the price is low, the bottom is supported, and the decline is expected to be limited. - Basis: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2100 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 3 for the 01 contract, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. - Inventory: As of November 13, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 127.90 million tons, an increase of 1.29 million tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas decreased by 3.97 million tons to 76.59 million tons. - Market Chart: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average. - Main Position: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions. - Expectation: The methanol price is expected to fluctuate weakly this week, with MA2601 trading between 2075 - 2130 [4]. 2. Long - Short Focus - Positive Factors: Some plants have stopped production, Iranian methanol operation has decreased, port inventory is at a low level, new acetic acid production capacity is expected to be put into operation, and northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - Negative Factors: Some previously stopped plants have resumed production, there is a concentrated arrival of ships at the port in the second half of the month, formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, MTBE operation has declined significantly, coal - to - methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively shipping, and some plants in the production area have accumulated inventory due to poor shipping [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - Price: The prices of various methanol products in the spot and futures markets, as well as their price changes and spreads, are presented. For example, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2072 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price is 2103 yuan/ton. - Operation Rate: The weighted average national operation rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operation rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest have also changed to varying degrees. - Inventory: The inventory in East China ports increased by 1.53 million tons to 80.33 million tons, while the inventory in South China ports decreased by 2.24 million tons to 47.57 million tons. - Production Profit: The production profits of different methanol production processes (coal - based, natural gas - based, and coke oven gas - based) have different trends. For example, the profit of coal - based methanol decreased by 5 yuan/ton, the profit of natural gas - based methanol remained unchanged, and the profit of coke oven gas - based methanol increased by 323 yuan/ton. - Downstream Product Data: The prices, production profits, and operation rates of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTO have also been analyzed. For example, the production profit of formaldehyde decreased by 9 yuan/ton, and the operation rate increased by 0.01% [8][21][19]. 4. Maintenance Status - Domestic Plants: Multiple domestic methanol plants are in various maintenance states, including planned maintenance, unplanned maintenance, and temporary shutdowns due to failures or limited gas supply. For example, Shaanxi Heimaotou's 100,000 - ton/year coke oven gas - based methanol plant has been shut down for maintenance since the beginning of November 2024, and the end date is to be determined [56]. - Overseas Plants: Some overseas methanol plants are also in different operation states, including normal operation, resumption after maintenance, and planned shutdowns. For example, QAFAC in Qatar was under maintenance from the end of February to March 16 [57]. - Olefin Plants: Some olefin plants are undergoing maintenance or have production plans. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's 700,000 - ton/year olefin plant and its 1.8 - million - ton/year methanol plant stopped for maintenance on March 15, with an expected duration of 45 days [58].
大越期货甲醇早报-20251114
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-11-14 03:15