大越期货PVC期货早报-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. Negative factors are the overall rebound in supply pressure, high and slowly consumed inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [11]. - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and domestic demand recovery is sluggish [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Positive factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [11]. - Negative factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slowly consumed inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [11]. - Main logic: Strong overall supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery [12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In October 2025, PVC production was 2.12812 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 80.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprises produced 345,350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.89%, and ethylene method enterprises produced 146,770 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63%. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, with a slight increase in scheduled production [7]. 3.2.2 Demand - The overall downstream开工率 was 49.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.93 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream profile开工率 was 37.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.21 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe开工率 was 39.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film开工率 was 71.79%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin开工率 was 78.06%, a month - on - month increase of 0.37 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are advantageous. Current demand may remain sluggish [7]. 3.2.3 Cost - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 769.4 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 0.80%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 465.05 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 14.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,176.35 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average, and scheduled production may be under pressure [7]. 3.2.4 Basis - On November 13, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,580 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 6 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is neutral [8]. 3.2.5 Inventory - Factory inventory was 334,596 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 250,396 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.78%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 84,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.63%. Social inventory was 545,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.20%. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 5.5 days, a month - on - month decrease of 2.65%. It is neutral [8]. 3.2.6 Market Chart - MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20. It is bearish [8]. 3.2.7 Main Position - The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing. It is bearish [8]. 3.2.8 Expectation - The cost of the calcium carbide method is weakening, the cost of the ethylene method is strengthening, and the overall cost is weakening. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, with an increase in scheduled production. The overall inventory is at a neutral level. Current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,562 - 4,610 [8]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's PVC market overview, including various indicators such as prices, spreads, production, and inventory, with specific numerical values and changes [15]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - It includes the basis trend, price and trading volume trends, and spread analysis of the main contract of PVC futures, with corresponding data and charts [17][20][23]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis - Calcium Carbide Method: It analyzes the prices, costs, profits, and production of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda, as well as the production and inventory of PVC [26][29][31][34]. - Demand: It analyzes downstream demand indicators such as trader sales volume, pre - sales volume, production and sales rate, apparent consumption, and downstream开工率, as well as related indicators in the real estate and infrastructure fields [44][48][52]. - Inventory: It shows the inventory situation of PVC, including exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, and social inventory [55]. - Ethylene Method: It analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price differences [57]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export [60].