大越期货豆粕早报-20251114

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3040 - 3100. It is affected by the US soybean trend, demand in the off - season, and the spot price discount, and is likely to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [9]. - The soybean A2601 is projected to oscillate between 4120 and 4220. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price, while the large - scale arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppress the upside [11]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Tips No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement in the China - US tariff negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans. However, the quantity of China's soybean purchases and the US soybean weather remain uncertain. The US soybean market is strongly volatile above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills also dropped from a high level. Soybean meal has returned to a range - bound pattern [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig restocking, weakening the demand for soybean meal in November and suppressing its price [13]. - The high inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas, and the China - US trade negotiation agreement have caused soybean meal to maintain a short - term range - bound pattern [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: high arrival volume of domestic imported soybeans in November, the harvest and listing of US soybeans, and the continuous expectation of a US soybean bumper harvest [14]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support from imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. - Bearish factors: a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and an expected increase in domestic soybean production [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: The spot price in East China is 3010, with a basis of - 61, indicating a discount to the futures. The oil mill's soybean meal inventory is 115300 tons, a 9.33% increase from last week and a 17.16% increase year - on - year [9]. - Soybeans: The spot price is 4100, with a basis of - 29, a discount to the futures. The oil mill's soybean inventory is 710790 tons, a 5.39% decrease from last week but a 29.06% increase year - on - year [11]. - Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, production, and total supply generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [32]. - Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, production, and total supply changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [33]. 5. Position Data - Soybean Meal: The main short positions decreased, and funds flowed in [9]. - Soybeans: The main short positions decreased, and funds flowed out [11]. 6. Soybean Meal and Soybean Views and Strategies Soybean Meal - The market focuses on the impact of US soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the China - US trade negotiation agreement. The short - term outlook is neutral, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern [9]. Soybeans - The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the China - US trade tariff game. The short - term view is neutral, and it is likely to oscillate within a certain range [11].