建信期货工业硅日报-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon futures price showed a pattern of strengthening first and then weakening. The Si2601 contract closed at 9,145 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.22%. The trading volume was 292,479 lots, and the open interest was 267,758 lots, with a net increase of 5,622 lots [4]. - The spot price remained stable, with the 553 price ranging from 9,100 to 9,500 yuan/ton and the 421 price ranging from 9,750 to 9,950 yuan/ton [4]. - In the supply side, the weekly output has gradually decreased from 98,000 tons to 90,000 tons. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the expected production cuts in the southwest region. The expected output of polysilicon is also decreasing. Today, organic silicon enterprises plan to conduct a centralized production cut. Currently, the weekly operating rate of organic silicon enterprises is 70.14%, and the monthly demand for industrial silicon is about 120,000 tons. After a 30% production cut, the demand loss will be more than 30,000 tons (accounting for 10% of the industrial silicon output). In the short term, the resistance in the dense trading area above is still strong, and the stalemate in the spot price also restricts the upward momentum of the futures price benefiting from the basis. The futures price will continue to fluctuate in a triangle - convergent pattern [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance and Outlook - Futures Price: The industrial silicon futures price of the Si2601 contract closed at 9,145 yuan/ton, down 0.22%. The trading volume was 292,479 lots, and the open interest was 267,758 lots, with a net increase of 5,622 lots [4]. - Spot Price: The 553 spot price ranged from 9,100 to 9,500 yuan/ton, and the 421 spot price ranged from 9,750 to 9,950 yuan/ton [4]. - Supply - side Situation: The weekly production of industrial silicon decreased from 98,000 tons to 90,000 tons. There are expectations of further production cuts in the southwest region. The output of polysilicon is expected to decline synchronously. Organic silicon enterprises plan to cut production by 30%, resulting in a demand loss of more than 30,000 tons, accounting for 10% of the industrial silicon output [4]. - Market Outlook: The futures price will continue to fluctuate in a triangle - convergent pattern due to strong resistance in the upper dense trading area and the stalemate in spot prices [4]. 3.2 Market News - Warehouse Receipts: On November 13, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 45,387 lots, a net decrease of 549 lots compared with the previous trading day [5]. - Organic Silicon Production Cut: In response to the national "anti - involution" call, organic silicon monomer plants have reached a consensus to cut production by 30%. The DMC price has been initially adjusted to 12,000 - 12,500 yuan, and some enterprises have suspended quotations. Further consultations will be held next week [5]. - Inventory: On November 7, the industrial silicon market inventory was 452,400 tons, a weekly increase of 1.05% and a year - on - year increase of 42.49% [5]. - Production: On November 7, the weekly production of industrial silicon was 90,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 7.85% and a year - on - year increase of 1.2% [5]. - Company Report: On October 30, Hesheng Silicon Industry released its Q3 2025 report. The company's operating income in the first three quarters was 15.206 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 25.35%; the net profit attributable to shareholders was - 321 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 122.1%; the non - recurring profit was - 271 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 120.61%. The net cash flow from operating activities was 3.727 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 104.94%. In the third quarter, the operating income was 5.430 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 23.51% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 19.42%; the net profit attributable to shareholders was 76 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 84.12% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 111.52%; the non - recurring profit was 262 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 37% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 135% [5].