建信期货原油日报-20251114

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Trading Recommendations Market Review - WTI: Opened at $60.96, closed at $58.48, high of $61.01, low of $58.30, down 4.12%, with a trading volume of 20.31 million lots [6] - Brent: Opened at $65.15, closed at $62.86, high of $65.15, low of $62.56, down 3.81%, with a trading volume of 40.35 million lots [6] - SC: Opened at 464 yuan/barrel, closed at 449.5 yuan/barrel, high of 464.1 yuan/barrel, low of 446.9 yuan/barrel, down 3.66%, with a trading volume of 9.40 million lots [6] - EIA raised the Q4 inventory build forecast from 2.58 million barrels per day to 2.79 million barrels per day. OPEC lowered the demand forecast for OPEC+ crude oil [6] - India is tendering for crude oil purchases in early 2026, retaining Russian oil but requiring the producers and terminals of the goods to be unsanctioned [6] - Lukoil's overseas assets are under US sanctions, and the West Qurna-2 oil field project is under force majeure and may exit operation later [6] Trading Recommendations - OPEC+ decided to temporarily halt production increases in Q1 2026, which is marginally bullish for supply, but the inventory build rate in Q1 2026 may reach 3 million barrels per day, and current policies are unlikely to reverse the oversupply [7] - The medium-term oil price still faces continuous oversupply pressure, and short positions are recommended [7] Group 3: Industry News - OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecast for this year and next, but changed the Q3 global oil market outlook from supply shortage to supply surplus [8] - EIA raised its oil price forecasts for this year and next. The expected Brent crude oil price in 2025 is $68.76 per barrel (previously $68.64 per barrel), and the expected WTI crude oil price in 2025 is $65.15 per barrel (previously $65.00 per barrel) [8] - The US Department of Energy awarded a contract to purchase about 1 million barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve [8] - Russia's seaborne oil product exports in October were basically the same as in September, at 7.804 million tons [8] Group 4: Data Overview - Data includes global high-frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [11][12][15][22] - Data sources include EIA, Bloomberg, and wind, as well as the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][14][17]