建信期货油脂日报-20251114

Report Information - Report Date: November 14, 2025 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The oil and fat sector rebounded from a low level, and the strategy is mainly to go long in bands [7] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Price Quotes: Dongguan rapeseed oil traders quoted prices with Dongguan factories' third - grade rapeseed oil at 01 + 620 and first - grade rapeseed oil at 01 + 720. In the East China market, the basis price of first - grade soybean oil was 01 + 270 in November and 01 + 280 from December to January. Guangdong traders' palm oil quotes were stable [7] - Market Analysis: Rapeseed oil continuously increased positions and rose, showing the strongest trend. Due to the interruption of imported rapeseed supply, domestic coastal oil mills' rapeseed crushing has not recovered, and rapeseed oil inventory has been continuously depleted. The domestic spot basis is stable with a slight upward trend. Soybean oil has limited downward price space based on import cost calculations and has buying value but is currently suppressed by high inventory. Palm oil is expected to see a decrease in production and inventory starting from November after the high - production reality in October was confirmed by the MPOB report [7] 2. Industry News - Production Forecast: Driven by favorable weather, improved labor supply, and high - yield new plantations, Malaysia's crude palm oil production in 2025 is expected to exceed 20 million tons for the first time, which may lead to higher - than - expected inventory and put pressure on the benchmark futures price [8] - Export Data: From November 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 190,533 tons, a 49.5% decrease compared to the same period in October. Exports to China were 0.57 million tons, a decrease of 48,000 tons compared to the previous month [8] - Price Spread: On November 12, 2025, the price of Indonesian crude palm oil was $1,070, and that of Malaysian crude palm oil was equivalent to $987, with a price spread of $83, up $11 from the previous day and down from $102 in the same period last week [8] 3. Data Overview - Graphs: The report includes graphs of spot prices and basis changes of rapeseed oil, soybean oil, and palm oil, as well as price spreads and exchange rates [12][13][20]