碳酸锂市场周报：供需双增库存持降，锂价或将有所支撑-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be in a situation of both supply and demand growth. Due to better demand growth rate and expectations, the industrial inventory continues to decline. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions at low prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Review: The weekly line of the lithium carbonate main contract fluctuated strongly, with a gain of +6.15% and an amplitude of 9.16%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 87,360 yuan/ton [4]. - Macro and Fundamental Information: In October, the domestic power battery loading volume was 84.1GWh, a month - on - month increase of 10.7% and a year - on - year increase of 42.1%. The spot price of lithium carbonate has been continuously strengthening, driving up the price of lithium ore. Overseas miners are more willing to sell, and smelters are also more active in purchasing [4]. - Supply and Demand Analysis: Supply is expected to increase significantly as domestic lithium salt plants maintain a relatively high operating rate and imports are expected to rise after the arrival of goods from Chile. Demand from the power and energy storage sectors is driving downstream orders and production scheduling. The overall situation is one of both supply and demand growth, with inventory decreasing [4]. - Trading Suggestion: Conduct short - term long positions at low prices with a light position and control risks in trading rhythm [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: As of November 14, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 87,360 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5,060 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 1,640 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week [11]. - Spot Price: As of November 14, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 85,150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4,750 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 2,210 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 310 yuan/ton [17]. 3.3 Upstream Market - Lithium Spodumene: As of November 14, 2025, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 952 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 18 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 7.0959, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37% [21]. - Lithium Mica: As of November 14, 2025, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 3,360 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 300 yuan/ton. The average price of lithiophilite was 9,510 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 905 yuan/ton [26]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Supply Side: As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 19,596.9 tons, a decrease of 2,250.01 tons from August, a decline of 10.3%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.49%. The monthly export volume was 150.816 tons, a decrease of 218.09 tons from August, a decline of 59.12%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.07%. As of October 2025, the monthly output of lithium carbonate was 51,530 tons, an increase of 4,390 tons from September, an increase of 9.31%, and a year - on - year increase of 62.15%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [29]. - Demand Side - Intermediate Products: As of November 14, 2025, the average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 151,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 yuan/ton. As of September 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 211,050 tons, an increase of 18,950 tons from August, an increase of 9.86%, and a year - on - year increase of 45.25%. The price of lithium iron phosphate increased, and the monthly output increased. The price of ternary materials remained flat, and the output decreased. The price of lithium manganate remained flat, and the monthly output decreased. The price of lithium cobaltate remained flat, and the monthly output increased [33][38][41][46][49]. - Application End: As of October 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 46.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.66% and a year - on - year increase of 7.15%. The monthly output was 1,772,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 9.59%, and the sales volume was 1,715,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.92%. The cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 2.014 million, a year - on - year increase of 90.36% [52][56]. 3.5 Option Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is - 0.19, presenting a reverse arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and the fundamental situation, it is recommended to short volatility by constructing a short straddle option [59].