瑞达期货尿素市场周报-20251114

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic urea market was strong first and then weak, with the trading center rising slightly. The average price of mainstream small and medium - sized granules in Shandong increased by 30 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spot trading atmosphere cooled, and prices in some regions declined slightly [5]. - The resumption of previously overhauled plants led to an increase in domestic urea production. Considering planned plant changes and potential short - term faults, the probability of production increase is high next week. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the increase in compound fertilizer operating load may be slow due to environmental protection. Export demand is gradually increasing with the new quota. Urea enterprise inventories decreased this week, and short - term continued slight destocking is expected [5]. - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1625 - 1680 in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week Key Points Summary - Market Review: The domestic urea market was first strong and then weak, with the average price of mainstream small and medium - sized granules in Shandong rising by 30 yuan/ton week - on - week. Spot trading cooled, and some regional prices declined slightly [5]. - Market Outlook: Production is likely to increase. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, compound fertilizer operating load increase may be slow, and export demand is rising. Urea enterprise inventories are expected to continue to decline slightly in the short term [5]. - Strategy Suggestion: The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 1625 - 1680 range in the short term [5]. 3.2. Futures Market Situation - Price Trend: The price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract oscillated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 0.9% [8]. - Inter - period Spread: As of November 14, the UR 1 - 5 spread was - 75 [11]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of November 14, there were 7183 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, an increase of 4598 compared to last week [20]. 3.3. Spot Market Situation - Domestic Spot Price: As of November 13, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1600 yuan/ton (+20), and in Jiangsu was 1590 yuan/ton (+20) [26]. - Foreign Spot Price: As of November 13, the FOB China price of urea was 385 dollars/ton, an increase of 7.5 dollars/ton compared to last week [29]. - Basis: As of November 13, the urea basis was - 58 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton compared to last week [34]. 3.4. Upstream Situation - Coal Price: As of November 12, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 700 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton compared to last week [38]. - Natural Gas Price: As of November 13, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.59 dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.27 dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [38]. 3.5. Industry Situation - Production and Capacity Utilization: As of November 13, China's urea production was 137.69 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.24 tons (1.65%), and the capacity utilization rate was 84.08%, a week - on - week increase of 1.37% [41]. - Inventory: As of November 13, the port sample inventory of Chinese urea was 8.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 tons (3.8%). As of November 12, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 148.36 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.45 tons (5.99%) [44]. - Export: In September 2025, urea exports were 137.12 tons, a month - on - month increase of 72.12%, and the average export price was 424.93 dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 93.01% [47]. 3.6. Downstream Situation - Compound Fertilizer: As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 30.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.72 percentage points. The increase in operating load may be slow next week [50]. - Melamine: As of November 13, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 57.48%, an increase of 4.28 percentage points compared to last week [50].