生猪市场周报：供需博弈，生猪震荡略偏弱-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hog price fluctuated, with the main contract 2601 down 0.76% weekly. The supply is at a relatively high level due to the higher-than-normal inventory of breeding sows in the corresponding cycle and the normal slaughter of large-scale farms. The second-round fattening is cautious, and smallholders are reluctant to sell due to price drops. The demand has improved but with limited growth as it's not yet the peak season for curing bacon. Overall, the price is expected to fluctuate slightly downward under the supply-demand game [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - The hog price fluctuated, and the main contract 2601 dropped 0.76% weekly. The supply is relatively high, the second-round fattening is cautious, smallholders are reluctant to sell, the demand has improved but with limited growth, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly downward [7]. 3.2 Futures Market Situation - The futures price declined this week, with the main contract 2601 down 0.76% weekly [11]. - The net short position in futures increased, and there were 90 futures warrants [13][15]. - The spread between lh2601 and lh2603 contracts was 210, and the spread between lh2601 and lh2605 contracts was -420 [20]. 3.3 Spot Market Situation - The basis of the hog 1-month contract was 125 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 3-month contract was 335 yuan/ton this week [25]. - The national average hog price was 11.94 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg from last week, and the average price of 15 kg weaned piglets was 23.69 yuan/kg, up 0.07 yuan/kg [34]. - The national pork market price was 23.17 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous week, and the average price of binary sows was 32.47 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [39]. - The pig-grain ratio was 5.60 as of November 5, up 0.06 from the previous week, but still below 6:1 [43]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - In Q3 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million heads, down 30,000 heads (0.2%) month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year, equivalent to 103.5% of the normal inventory. In October, the inventory of breeding sows in large-scale farms increased 0.12% month-on-month and 0.83% year-on-year, while that in small and medium-sized farms decreased 0.14% month-on-month and increased 0.89% year-on-year [48]. - In Q3 2025, the hog inventory was 436.8 million heads, up 2.9% month-on-month and 2.3% year-on-year. In October, the inventory of commercial hogs in large-scale farms increased 0.10% month-on-month and 5.16% year-on-year, and that in small and medium-sized farms increased 1.84% month-on-month and 6.45% year-on-year [52]. - In October, the slaughter volume of commercial hogs in large-scale farms was 11.4395 million heads, up 11.96% month-on-month and 17.56% year-on-year, and that in small and medium-sized farms was 0.5258 million heads, up 9.48% month-on-month and 27.06% year-on-year. The average slaughter weight of domestic ternary hogs this week was 123.52 kg, up 0.27 kg from last week [57]. 3.5 Industry Situation - As of November 14, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was a loss of 205.64 yuan/head, with the loss widening by 30.1 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of self-reproduced and self-raised hogs was a loss of 114.81 yuan/head, with the loss widening by 25.6 yuan/head [62]. - From January to September 2025, China imported 790,000 tons of pork, with an average monthly import of 87,800 tons. In September, the pork import volume was 80,000 tons, down 20% year-on-year [63][67]. - As of the week of November 14, the price of white-striped chickens was 13.9 yuan/kg, up 0.10 yuan/kg from last week. As of the week of November 13, the average price difference between standard and fattened hogs was -0.7 yuan/kg, widening by 0.01 yuan/kg from last week [72]. - As of November 14, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,124 yuan/ton, up 26.29 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the corn price was 2,270.98 yuan/ton, up 32.45 yuan/ton from the previous week [77]. - As of November 14, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange hog feed cost index was 909.77, and the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.33 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week [80]. - As of September 2025, the monthly feed output was 31.287 million tons, up 2.015 million tons month-on-month. In October 2025, the sales of piglet feed increased 0.42% month-on-month and 0.56% year-on-year [84]. - As of October 2025, China's CPI increased 0.2% year-on-year [89]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - In the 46th week, the slaughtering enterprise's开工 rate was 33.90%, up 0.43 percentage points from last week and 4.64 percentage points year-on-year. The fresh sales rate of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 85.51%, down 0.76% from last week, and the frozen product storage rate was 18.32%, up 0.08% from last week [92]. - As of September 2025, the slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises was 35.84 million heads, up 6.99% from the previous month. In October 2025, the national catering revenue was 519.9 billion yuan, up 3.76% year-on-year [97]. 3.7 Hog Stocks - The report shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd. [101]