沪铜市场周报：供给略减需求暂稳，沪铜或将震荡运行-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper market is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to conduct light - position trading with attention to controlling rhythm and trading risks [4][5] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1. Weekly Summary - Market Performance: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract first rose and then fell, with a weekly increase of 1.12% and an amplitude of 2.53%. The closing price of the main contract this week was 86,900 yuan/ton [4] - International Situation: The Fed's hawkish stance continues to send cautious signals. Daly said it's too early to say whether there will be a rate cut in December. Musalem believes that the policy is approaching neutrality and the easing space is limited [4] - Domestic Situation: As of the end of October 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 437.72 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The balance of broad - money (M2) was 335.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 112 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [4] - Fundamentals: Copper concentrate supply remains tight, and the smelting cost support logic still exists. The supply growth of refined copper has slowed down, and the demand is temporarily stable. Social inventory has decreased slightly [4] 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - Futures Contract: As of November 14, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 195 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 120 yuan/ton. The main contract price was 86,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 960 yuan/ton, and the position volume was 192,293 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 14,843 lots [10] - Spot Price: As of November 14, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 87,095 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 330 yuan/ton [13] - Inter - month Spread: As of November 14, 2025, the inter - month spread of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 80 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton [13] - Premium and Position: The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF average premium was 45 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week. The net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was 19,148 lots, an increase of 1,063 lots from last week [22] - Option Market: As of November 14, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main at - the - money option contract fell below the 75th percentile of historical volatility. The put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option positions was 0.8142, a week - on - week increase of 0.0422 [27] 3.3. Upstream Situation - Price and Processing Fee: The copper concentrate price in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 77,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 590 yuan/ton. The southern rough copper processing fee was 1,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton [30] - Import and Spread: As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5869 million tons, a decrease of 172,000 tons from August, a decline of 6.23%, and a year - on - year increase of 6.24%. The refined - scrap copper spread (tax - included) was 3,453.2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 235.74 yuan/ton [36] - Production and Inventory: As of August 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1.937 million tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from July, a decline of 0.26%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 77.5%, a decrease of 0.4% from July. The inventory of copper concentrates at seven domestic ports was 498,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 37,000 tons [41] 3.4. Industry Situation - Refined Copper Production: As of September 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.266 million tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons from August, a decline of 2.69%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.25%. As of August 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2.451 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from July, a decline of 0.33%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 81%, a decrease of 0.5% from July [44] - Refined Copper Import: As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 374,075.583 tons, an increase of 66,847.36 tons from August, an increase of 21.76%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.44%. The import profit and loss amount was 31.27 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 120.55 yuan/ton [50][51] - Social Inventory: The LME total inventory increased by 275 tons week - on - week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 10,070 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 6,436 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 198,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons [54] 3.5. Downstream and Application - Copper Products: As of September 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.232 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from August, an increase of 0.45%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 490,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons from August, an increase of 13.95%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.08% [60] - Power Grid and Appliance: As of September 2025, the cumulative investment completion of power and grid increased by 0.6% and 9.9% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 5.6%, - 3%, - 2%, - 6.7%, and 3.9% year - on - year respectively [64] - Real Estate and Integrated Circuits: As of October 2025, the cumulative investment completion of real estate development was 7.3563 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7% and a month - on - month increase of 8.65%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 386.6 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.2% and a month - on - month increase of 1.23% [71] 3.6. Overall Situation - Global Supply and Demand: According to ICSG statistics, as of August 2025, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 47,000 tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance value was 256,500 tons [76][77]