硅铁市场周报：成本高位利润亏损，需求下降库存回升-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply side of ferrosilicon is expected to see a decline in production from November to December due to losses of manufacturers and postponed new - capacity launches. The demand side will continue the downward trend of crude steel production, and the alloy is likely to remain in a loss state. It is expected that ferrosilicon will fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5700 [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - ly Key Points Summary - Macro: The "anti - involution" policy has led to the first monthly increase in PPI since last November, and the year - on - year decline has reached the smallest in over a year. Policies for new energy consumption and regulation have been released, and an energy supply guarantee meeting has been held [7]. - Overseas: Trump warned of an "economic disaster" if the Supreme Court rules against imposing comprehensive tariffs [7]. - Supply and demand: Market transactions are mainly for end - user rigid demand restocking, and inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 250 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 480 yuan/ton. The November tender price of Hegang 75B ferrosilicon is 5680 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous round [7]. - Technology: The weekly K - line of the ferrosilicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - Strategy: Considering the macro - situation, supply, and demand, it is expected that ferrosilicon will fluctuate between 5400 - 5700 [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Overall Futures and Spot Market - As of November 14, the ferrosilicon futures contract open interest was 382,000 lots, a net increase of 25,000 lots. The 5 - 1 contract spread was 12, a decrease of 54 points [13]. 3.2.2 Futures Market - As of November 14, the ferrosilicon warehouse receipt quantity was 8450, an increase of 2751. The Ningxia ferrosilicon price was 5240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [17]. 3.2.3 Spot Market - As of November 14, the ferrosilicon basis was - 330 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 points [22]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1 Industry - This week (November 13), the national average capacity utilization rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 34.84%, a decrease of 1.42% from last week. The daily average output was 15,590 tons, a decrease of 4.36% (710 tons). The weekly demand for ferrosilicon from five major steel products was 19,073.8 tons, a decrease of 3.73%. The national weekly ferrosilicon output was 109,100 tons [28]. - This week (November 13), the national inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 81,360 tons, an increase of 3.39% (2670 tons). Inventory in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Gansu increased, while that in Shaanxi and Qinghai decreased [32]. 3.3.2 Upstream - As of November 10, the electricity price for ferrosilicon in Ningxia remained unchanged at 0.395 yuan/kWh, while that in Inner Mongolia decreased by 0.025 yuan/kWh to 0.405 yuan/kWh. As of November 13, the price of semi - coke remained unchanged [37]. - As of November 13, the spot production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.91%, and in Ningxia was 5631 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.49%. The spot profit in Ningxia was - 481 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.50% [41]. 3.3.3 Downstream - This week, the average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.3688 million tons, an increase of 26,600 tons from last week and 9400 tons from last year. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative exports of ferrosilicon with a silicon content greater than 55% were 292,900 tons, a decrease of 22,900 tons (7.25%) from the same period last year [46].