Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The macro environment has shifted from strong expectations and weak reality to weak expectations and weak reality, with the guarantee of civilian heating energy taking precedence over safety production work in mid - November, affecting the market sentiment. The decline in crude steel production and poor real - estate investment data mean that coke profits have limited room for significant improvement. The main price of coking coal futures is expected to oscillate between 1130 - 1350, and the main price of coke futures between 1630 - 1850 [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - Macro: Hunan Yueyang Pingjiang County introduced new regulations to become the first county in Hunan to fully implement spot - house sales. The central bank's RMB loan balance reached 270 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale stock reached 437 trillion yuan. In October, residents' confidence in home - buying continued to decline [7]. - Overseas: Trump warned of an "economic disaster" if the Supreme Court rules against imposing comprehensive tariffs [7]. - Supply and Demand: The current iron - water output is 236.88 million tons, an increase of 2.66 million tons, and the total coke inventory is higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is - 34 yuan/ton [7]. - Technical: The weekly K - line of the main coke contract 2601 is above the 60 - day average, showing a bullish trend [7]. - Strategy: The NDRC aims to stabilize energy production and supply. The market has shifted from strong expectations and weak reality to weak expectations and weak reality. The decline in crude steel production and poor real - estate investment data mean that coke profits have limited room for significant improvement. The main price of coking coal futures is expected to oscillate between 1130 - 1350, and the main price of coke futures between 1630 - 1850 [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: The contract holding volume increased by 1233 lots, and the coke monthly spread increased by 13 points. The registered warehouse receipt volume remained unchanged, and the screw - coke ratio increased by 0.10 points [9][13][15]. - Spot Market: As of November 13, 2025, the coke closing price at Rizhao Port was 1580 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. As of November 14, the coke basis was - 106.0 yuan, an increase of 90.5 points [25]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - Coal Mines: The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 86.3%, an increase of 2.5%. The daily output of raw coal was 192.0 million tons, an increase of 5.6 million tons, and the raw coal inventory was 434.6 million tons, an increase of 15.3 million tons. The daily output of clean coal was 75.7 million tons, an increase of 1.9 million tons, and the clean coal inventory was 165.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.5 million tons [30]. - Coal Washing Plants: The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal - washing plants was 37.4%, a decrease of 0.18%. The daily output of clean coal was 27.4 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons, and the clean coal inventory was 300.8 million tons, an increase of 5.9 million tons [30]. - Coking Plants: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 71.10%, a decrease of 0.74%. The daily output of coke was 50.14 million tons, a decrease of 0.52 million tons. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 34 yuan/ton [34]. - Steel Mills: The daily output of iron water was 236.88 million tons, an increase of 2.66 million tons compared with last week. As of November 14, 2025, the total coke inventory was 850.19 million tons, a decrease of 5.45 million tons compared with the previous period, and an increase of 8.63% compared with the same period last year [38]. - Inventory Structure: The port inventory decreased, and the steel - mill inventory decreased. The inventory of 18 ports was 259.50 million tons, a decrease of 3.01 million tons. The inventory of 247 steel mills was 622.4 million tons, a decrease of 4.24 million tons, and the available days of coke were 11.06 days, a decrease of 0.01 days [41][43]. - Exports: From January to September, the cumulative coke exports were 549 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.5%, and the cumulative steel exports were 8795.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [47]. 4. Fundamental Data Charts - Real Estate: In October 2025, the second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.70% month - on - month. As of the week of November 9, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 139.51 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 30.91% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.43% [50][51]. - City - Tier Breakdown: As of the week of November 9, the commercial housing transaction area in first - tier cities was 39.32 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 18.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 44.46%. The commercial housing transaction area in second - tier cities was 72.74 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 35.63% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.04% [56].
焦炭市场周报：宏观扰动、需求偏弱，焦企亏损四轮提涨-20251114
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-14 09:17