Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly, with a weekly increase of about 0.24%. The price of the ICE US Sugar March contract also rose, with a weekly increase of about 2.12%, while the international raw sugar spot price was 13.93 cents per pound, down 0.21 cents per pound from last week [5][10][18]. - In the 2025/26 season, India maintains its sugar export policy. In the 2024/25 season, India has exported 800,000 tons of sugar, less than the initially set export quota of 1 million tons. The current raw sugar price has factored in some expectations of Indian sugar exports and Brazil's production increase in the next season, and the price will be adjusted as expectations are revised [5]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China predicts that China's sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 11.7 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons from last month's forecast, mainly due to a slight increase in the national sugar - crop planting area, good growth of southern sugarcane, and a slight increase in the sugar content of northern sugar beets [5]. - Currently, a total of 26 sugar mills in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang have all started production, with a total expected output of 1.4 million tons. Five sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, and the old - sugar stocks in Guangxi are basically cleared. The delay in the start of production in Guangxi puts some pressure on the spot market, while the processing sugar has little intention to reduce prices, providing support at the lower end [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights - Market Review: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.24% [5]. - Market Outlook: In the international market, the raw sugar price will adjust as expectations are revised. In the domestic market, sugar production is expected to increase, and the delay in the start of production in Guangxi affects the spot market [5]. - Future Focus: Domestic production and sales, and new - season production estimates [6] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: The price of the ICE US Sugar March contract rose by about 2.12% this week. The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose by about 0.24%. The net position of the top 20 in the Zhengzhou sugar futures is - 48,324 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts is 8,622. The price difference between the Zhengzhou sugar futures 1 - 5 contracts is + 66 yuan/ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou sugar basis is + 290 yuan/ton [10][19][26][30]. - Spot Market: As of November 14, the old - sugar stocks are being cleared, and there is no new quotation. The estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 1,813 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota is 539 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton from last week. The estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota is 1,533 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota is 467 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan/ton from last week [37][43]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - Supply Side - Production: As of the end of October 2025, the national sugar production in the 2024/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons, or 12.03% [48]. - Industrial Inventory: As of August 2025, the domestic sugar industrial inventory was 1.1623 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 450,000 tons or 27.91%, and a year - on - year increase of 60,100 tons or 5.45% [51]. - Imports: In September 2025, China's sugar imports were 550,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 27.78% and a month - on - month decrease of 280,000 tons. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 3.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.89% [55]. - Demand Side - Sales Rate: As of the end of October 2025, the sugar mills in the 2024/25 season have all stopped production. The national sugar production in this season was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons, or 12.03% [61]. - Production of Related Products: In September 2025, China's monthly production of refined sugar was 539,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.4%. The monthly production of soft drinks was 15.9167 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9% [65]. 3.4. Options and Stock - Related Markets - Options Market: Information about the implied volatility of the at - the - money options of sugar this week is provided, but specific data is not described in detail [67]. - Stock Market: Information about the price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is provided, but specific data is not described in detail [72]
白糖市场周报-20251114
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-14 09:29