苹果市场周报-20251114

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract rose, with a weekly increase of approximately 5.86%. The late - maturing Fuji apple storage work for the new season is nearing completion, and the remaining inventory is mainly concentrated in places like Qixia, Shandong. As of November 13, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas nationwide was 7642400 tons, 905400 tons lower than the same period last year. The sales market has entered the off - season, and the sales space of apples is squeezed to some extent by the increasing supply of citrus fruits. In the short term, the apple futures price is expected to remain at a high level [4][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Performance: The price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 5.86% [4][8]. - Market Outlook: The cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas nationwide is lower than last year. The storage work in Shandong is in the peak period, while in Shaanxi, it is basically completed. The sales market is in the off - season, and the sales space of apples is squeezed. The apple futures price is expected to remain high in the short term [4]. - Future Trading Tips: Fruit prices and consumption [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market: The price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract rose by about 5.86% this week. As of the end of the week, the net position of the top 20 in apple futures was 9500 lots, and the number of apple futures warrants was 0 [8][14]. - Spot Market: As of November 14, 2025, the mainstream price of纸袋 red Fuji 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmers' goods in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 3.5 yuan per catty; the price of paper - bagged Fuji apples 75 and above in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.30 yuan per catty [17]. 3.3 Industry Situation and Options - Supply Side: As of November 13, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas nationwide was 7642400 tons, 905400 tons lower than the same period last year. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 51.27%, an increase of 10.24% from last week, and in Shaanxi, it was 59.64%, an increase of 2.63% from last week [24]. - Demand Side: - Wholesale Market: As of November 14, the average daily number of early - morning arrivals at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was suspended (replaced by 0). As of November 7, 2025, the average wholesale price of all varieties of apples was 9.49 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan per kilogram; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.04 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 yuan per kilogram. The weekly average wholesale price of 5 kinds of fruits was 7.04 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan per kilogram [28][31][35]. - Export: In September 2025, China's fresh apple exports were about 70800 tons, with an export value of 69178601 US dollars and an average export price of 977.40 US dollars per ton. The export volume increased by 3.51% month - on - month compared with August and decreased by 6.36% year - on - year compared with September 2024. From January to September 2025, China's total fresh apple exports were 600000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.50% [39]. - Options Market: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for apples this week was presented in a chart, but specific data was not provided [40]. 3.4 Futures - Stock Correlation - A chart of the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit was presented, but specific analysis was not provided [42]