Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract decreased slightly, with a weekly decline of about 0.96%. The price of the US cotton March contract also dropped, with a weekly decline of about 0.92% [5][11]. - In the domestic market, the acquisition and processing of new cotton are progressing rapidly, and the acquisition is nearly finished. The acquisition price of cotton has increased, providing cost support. However, with the gradual issuance of import quotas and the accelerated shipment of high - grade new cotton from Brazil, the import volume in October is expected to increase month - on - month. Currently, the port inventory has reached a four - month high, with large arrivals and limited shipments [5]. - In October, China's textile and clothing exports showed a double - decline in both year - on - year and month - on - month terms, with the decline in clothing exports significantly greater than that of textiles. But there are signs of marginal improvement in domestic retail demand. Overall, the supply side continues to exert pressure, while the domestic demand shows marginal improvement, so the market is expected to maintain a volatile trend [5]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: The price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract decreased slightly this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.96% [5]. - Market Outlook: The supply side has cost support, but import volume is expected to rise, and port inventory is high. The demand side shows a decline in exports but marginal improvement in domestic retail. The market is expected to be volatile [5]. - Trading Tips: Monitor changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory levels [5] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - US Cotton Market: The price of the US cotton March contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.92%. As of the week ending September 25, the net increase in US cotton export sales for the current year was 155,400 bales, and new sales were 158,800 bales. The international cotton spot price was 75.4 cents per pound, a decrease of 1.15 cents per pound from last week [11][15]. - Futures Market: The price of the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract decreased slightly, with a weekly decline of about 0.96%. The price of the cotton yarn futures 2601 contract decreased by about 0.78%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 91,423 lots, and in cotton yarn futures was - 211 lots. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures warehouse receipts was 4,401, and cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts were 28 [21][27][31]. - Spot Market: As of November 14, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,806 yuan per ton. The national purchase price of seed cotton 3128B was 3.2 yuan per 500 grams, and in Xinjiang, it was 3.47 yuan per 500 grams. The spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,470 yuan per ton [43][46][58]. - Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost: As of November 13, the sliding - duty price of imported cotton was 13,946 yuan per ton, a decrease of 150 yuan per ton from last week; the quota price of imported cotton was 12,949 yuan per ton, a decrease of 247 yuan per ton from last week. The estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - duty was 873 yuan per ton, an increase of 149 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1,870 yuan per ton, an increase of 246 yuan per ton from last week [62][65]. 3. Industry Situation - Supply Side: At the end of September, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.0217 million tons, a decrease of 798,500 tons or 32.34% from the previous month. As of the end of September, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 846,000 tons, an increase of 61,000 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 46,000 tons month - on - month. In September 2025, China's total cotton import volume was about 100,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons month - on - month and a decrease of 20,000 tons or 16.6% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the cumulative cotton import volume was 690,000 tons, a decrease of 1.57 million tons or 69.50% year - on - year [70][77]. - Mid - end Industry: As of October 15, 2025, the yarn inventory days were 25.24 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.57%; the inventory days of grey cloth were 31.43 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.00% [80]. - Terminal Consumption: In October 2025, China's textile and clothing export volume was 22.26 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.8%. Among them, textile exports were 11.258 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 9.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.9%; clothing exports were 11 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 16.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.6%. As of September 30, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 1.06127 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 12.90%, and the cumulative year - on - year was 3.1%, a month - on - month increase of 6.90% [85][89]. 4. Options and Stock Market - related Markets - Options Market: The report shows the implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week, but specific data is not further explained [90]. - Stock Market: The report presents the price - to - earnings ratio trend of Xinong Development, but no in - depth analysis is provided [93]
棉花（纱）市场周报-20251114
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-14 09:28