Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the domestic economic growth continued the slowdown trend of the third quarter, with some economic indicators significantly affected by the external environment. The injection of 50 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments may boost investment in the fourth quarter, and the annual economic growth target of 5% is expected to be achieved. Overseas, the US government shutdown ended, but there may be a lack of some employment and inflation data in October, and the employment market's downward risk has increased. The expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has significantly decreased. - The overall fundamental data in October was weak, with indicators such as exports, social financing, and social retail sales declining to varying degrees. The inflation level rebounded slightly, but its sustainability remains to be observed. The economy is expected to continue a weak recovery in the fourth quarter. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose policy tone, with limited room for further monetary easing this year. In the short - term, interest rates may fluctuate within a narrow range [101][102]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - Performance of Treasury Bond Futures Contracts: The 30 - year TL2512 contract rose 0.18%, while the 10 - year T2512, 5 - year TF2512, and 2 - year TS2512 contracts fell 0.03%, 0.03%, and 0.02% respectively. The trading volume of TS and TF contracts increased, while that of T and TL contracts decreased. The open interest of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts all decreased [13][30]. - Performance of Underlying Bonds: The yields of 1 - 7Y treasury bonds rose by 0.25 - 1.5bp, while the 10Y and 30Y yields fell by 0.4bp and 0.6bp to 1.81% and 2.15% respectively [9]. 2. News Review and Analysis - Domestic News: In October, the expansion of domestic demand policies continued to show results. CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and core CPI rose 1.2% year - on - year. PPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and fell 2.1% year - on - year. The State Council issued measures to promote private investment. The cumulative social financing scale in the first ten months increased by 3.83 trillion yuan year - on - year. From January to October, real estate investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year. In October, industrial added value increased by 4.9% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.62%, social retail sales increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points [33][34]. - Overseas News: From October 1 to 25, the US private sector lost 45,000 jobs. The US government shutdown ended, but there may be a lack of some employment and inflation data in October, and the economic loss caused by the shutdown was estimated at $15 billion per week [35][101]. 3. Chart Analysis - Spread Changes - Yield Spread: The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year yields, and between 10 - year and 1 - year yields narrowed. - Contract Spread: The spread between 2 - year and 5 - year, and between 5 - year and 10 - year contract spreads widened. - Near - far Month Spread: The near - far month spreads of 10 - year, 30 - year, and 5 - year contracts narrowed, while that of the 2 - year contract widened slightly [43][49][60]. - Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes: The net short position of the top 20 positions in the T contract decreased slightly [66]. - Interest Rate Changes: Overnight, 1 - week, and 2 - week Shibor rates rose, while the 1 - month Shibor rate fell. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded to around 1.47%. The yields of treasury bonds weakened, with 1 - 7Y yields rising by 1.5 - 3.0bp, and 10Y and 30Y yields rising by 1.8bp and 1.4bp to 1.81% and 2.16% respectively [70]. - Bond Issuance and Maturity: This week, the total bond issuance was 148.1511 billion yuan, the total repayment was 99.4987 billion yuan, and the net financing was 48.6524 billion yuan [83]. - Market Sentiment - Exchange Rate: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.0825, up 11 basis points this week, and the spread between offshore and on - shore RMB widened. - US Bond Yield and VIX: The 10 - year US bond yield fluctuated, and the VIX index rose significantly. - A - share Risk Premium: The 10 - year treasury bond yield declined, and the A - share risk premium declined slightly [87][93][98]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - Domestic Outlook: In October, domestic economic growth continued to slow down, with some economic indicators affected by the external environment. The injection of 50 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments may boost investment in the fourth quarter, and the annual economic growth target of 5% is expected to be achieved. - Overseas Outlook: The US government shutdown ended, but there may be a lack of some employment and inflation data in October. The employment market's downward risk increased, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December decreased significantly. - Overall Outlook: The economic data in October was weak, inflation rebounded slightly, and the economy is expected to continue a weak recovery in the fourth quarter. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose policy, with limited room for further monetary easing. In the short - term, interest rates may fluctuate within a narrow range [101][102].
资金边际收紧，期债短弱长强
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-14 09:28