Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Agricultural products [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [1] - Research team: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3][4] Group 2: Fats and Oils Core Viewpoint - The trends of the three major fats and oils are differentiated. Palm oil lacks driving forces and continues to fluctuate weakly. Rapeseed oil is policy - dominated, and in the short - term, with inventory depletion and tight spot supplies, it is mainly a long - position configuration. Soybean oil fluctuates in the range of 8000 - 8400, with a bottom but limited upside due to high inventory [9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market review: Palm oil is the weakest among the three major fats and oils, showing a fluctuating and weak pattern. Soybean oil futures rebounded slightly, and rapeseed oil is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term [8][9] - Operation suggestions: For palm oil, wait for clearer guidance; for rapeseed oil, take a long - position configuration; for soybean oil, expect it to fluctuate in the 8000 - 8400 range [9] 2. Core Points - Domestic spot changes: As of November 14, 2025, the prices of East China first - grade soybean oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and South China 24 - degree palm oil all increased weekly, and their basis also increased [10] - Domestic inventory of the three major fats and oils: As of the end of the 45th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils decreased weekly, with soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all showing inventory declines [22] - Domestic supply of fats and oils and oilseeds: The soybean opening rate of major domestic soybean oil plants decreased compared to last week, and the rapeseed opening rate of major domestic oil plants was almost at a standstill. The import volume of soybeans and rapeseed in 2025 showed different trends [25][29] - Palm oil dynamics: In October 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production, exports, and inventory increased, while imports decreased. From November 1 - 10, production decreased. India's palm oil imports in October decreased [32][33] - CFTC positions: Relevant position charts are provided, but no specific analysis content is given [44] Group 3: Live Pigs Core Viewpoint - On the supply side, in the long - term, pig slaughter may increase slightly until the first half of next year; in the short - term, the planned slaughter volume in November decreased month - on - month, but the daily average remained the same. On the demand side, secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and terminal consumption may gradually improve. Overall, the spot market will fluctuate, and the futures market will be weak in the medium - to - long - term [95][96] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Spot market: The average national live pig slaughter price fluctuated weakly this week, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.55%. The expected cost of pig fattening showed different trends, and the breeding profit decreased [48] - Futures market: As of Thursday this week, the main live pig futures contract LH2601 fluctuated and declined, with a closing price of 11860 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.67% [49] 2. Fundamental Overview - Long - term supply: Breeding sow inventory: The price of binary sows remained stable this week. As of the end of September 2025, the inventory of breeding sows decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Different data sources have different estimations of future pig slaughter [54][58] - Medium - term supply: Piglet inventory: The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets increased this week. As of October, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and future pig slaughter is expected to increase [71] - Short - term supply: Large - pig inventory, hoarding, and secondary fattening: As of October, the inventory of large pigs in sample enterprises increased month - on - month. The proportion of large pigs over 140 kg increased, and the proportion of secondary fattening sales decreased. The utilization rate of secondary fattening pens decreased [73][74] - Current supply: Commercial pig slaughter volume and slaughter weight: In October 2025, the actual pig sales volume exceeded the planned volume. The planned sales volume in November decreased month - on - month. The average slaughter weight of pigs increased this week [81][82] - Import supply: Pork imports: In September 2025, China's pork imports remained the same month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative import volume decreased year - on - year [84] - Demand: Secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the slaughter enterprise's opening rate increased slightly this week. The national large - scale live pig slaughter volume from January to September 2025 increased year - on - year [90][91] 3. Future Outlook - Viewpoint: The spot market will fluctuate, and the futures market will be weak in the medium - to - long - term [95][96] - Strategy: Futures investors should wait and see, and breeding enterprises should hold hedging short positions [98] - Important variables: Swine fever epidemic, hoarding, and secondary fattening consensus expectations [99] Group 4: Corn Core Viewpoint - On the supply side, new - crop corn has increased production, and the supply is sufficient. Substitute products have reduced price advantages, and future imports may remain low. On the demand side, feed demand is good, but the inventory of feed enterprises is low, and the procurement of deep - processing enterprises is active, but inventory increase is difficult. Overall, the spot price will fluctuate around the cost price, and the futures price will be affected by multiple factors [141] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Spot market: This week, the corn price was strong. In the Northeast, North Port traders raised prices to stimulate arrivals; in North China, farmers were reluctant to sell, and deep - processing enterprises raised prices to purchase; in the sales area, prices increased due to cost factors [100] - Futures market: As of November 13, the main Dalian futures contract 2601 closed at 2186 yuan/ton, up 1.5% from last Thursday [101] 2. Fundamental Analysis - Corn supply: This week, the grain sales progress slowed down, and the overall progress was faster than the same period last year. The inventory of northern and southern ports increased [105][108] - Domestic substitutes: This week, the wheat price fluctuated weakly. The corn price was 272 yuan/ton lower than the wheat price [109] - Import substitute grains: In September 2025, China's import volume of grains increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import volume of different grains showed different trends. The import profit of Brazilian corn was high, but imports may remain low in the future [110][120] - Feed demand: In September 2025, the national industrial feed production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The proportion of corn in feed decreased. Pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly, and feed production is expected to continue to increase [121][129] - Deep - processing demand: Recently, the corn starch industry's production profit was good, and the opening rate increased. The processing profit of starch enterprises in different regions changed differently, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises decreased [131][133] - Supply - demand balance sheet: In the 2025/26 period, China's corn planting area, yield, and consumption are expected to increase, and the inventory is expected to increase [137] 3. Future Outlook and Strategy - Viewpoint: The spot price will fluctuate around the cost price, and the futures price will be affected by multiple factors [141] - Strategy: Spot enterprises should replenish inventory appropriately, and futures investors should hold long positions and set stop - losses [142] - Important variables: Policies on purchasing, selling, and storing, tariff policies, geopolitical situations, and weather [143] Group 5: Soybean Meal Core Viewpoint - The external market of soybean meal is close to a short - term high, and the domestic market is cautiously bullish in the short - term. The risk lies in the possibility that China may only purchase a small amount of US soybeans in the future [146][147] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot market: As of November 14, the coastal soybean meal price increased slightly [145] - Futures market: The external market of US soybeans was strong, and the domestic soybean meal rose due to cost - push factors. In the short - term, it should be treated with caution and bullishness [146][147] 2. Core Points - Soybean planting: In the USDA September report, the new - crop US soybean planting and harvest area decreased year - on - year, and the yield and inventory were adjusted. The Brazilian and Argentine soybean yields are expected to increase. The US soybean harvest is almost complete, and the Brazilian and Argentine soybean planting progress is different [148][150] - US soybean exports: As of September 25, the US soybean export volume decreased year - on - year. After the Sino - US agreement, there are uncertainties about future Chinese purchases [155] - Domestic soybean imports and crushing: As of November 13, the crushing profit of imported soybeans was negative. The soybean crushing volume and opening rate decreased. The soybean import volume in October decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The port soybean inventory will be high in the short - term and then decrease [166][168] - Soybean meal trading and inventory: As of November 7, the domestic soybean meal inventory decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year. The trading was not active in October, and the terminal demand is expected to be good [172] - Basis and inter - month spreads: As of November 13, the soybean meal 01 contract basis decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread was stable. The 01 contract is relatively strong, and the 1 - 5 spread may increase [175] - Domestic registered warehouse receipts: As of November 13, the domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts were at a relatively high level in the same period of history [180] Group 6: Eggs Core Viewpoint - The spot market will adjust narrowly at a low level next week. The futures market is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term. Long positions in the far - month contracts can be considered at low prices, and a reverse spread between the near - and far - month contracts is appropriate [183] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot market: The spot market weakened this week, and it is expected to adjust narrowly at a low level next week [183] - Futures market: The futures market declined this week, with the near - month contracts falling more. In the future, the far - month contracts may have opportunities [183] 2. Data Summary - Inventory and replenishment: As of the end of October 2025, the inventory of laying hens decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The egg - chick replenishment momentum slowed down, and the inventory structure changed [184][186] - Cost, income, and breeding profit: As of November 13, the egg price decreased, the feed cost remained stable, the egg - chick price decreased, the breeding profit was at a historically low level but improved compared to last week [189]
建信期货农产品周度报告-20251114
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-11-14 10:17