宏观贵金属周报-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economic growth momentum weakened marginally in October 2025, but it is likely to achieve the annual growth target of around 5%. New round of pro - growth policies are expected to be introduced in the coming year, and gold's long - term bullish trend is well - founded [4]. - The end of the US federal government shutdown had short - term and long - term impacts on the US economy. In the short term, it may push up the Fed's December rate - cut expectation, while in the long run, the US economic growth momentum is likely to rebound in late 2025 and 2026, which is negative for precious metals [16][17]. - It is recommended to take a long - position approach in precious metal trading, as the medium - term bull market of precious metals since March 2024 is not over, and attention should be paid to the opportunities to go long again [30]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro Environment Review 3.1.1 Economic Situation in China - China's economic growth momentum weakened marginally in October due to reduced stimulus from pro - growth measures, international trade tensions, and the decline of export - rush demand. New pro - growth policies are expected to be introduced in the future [4]. - From January to October, China's cumulative year - on - year fixed - asset investment shrank by 1.7%, with manufacturing, real estate, and infrastructure investment all showing different degrees of slowdown [5]. - In October, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year - on - year, with a slowdown in growth. The cumulative year - on - year growth from January to October was 4.3% [8]. - In October, China's industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 4.9% year - on - year, with a slowdown in growth. The domestic supply - demand imbalance worsened [9]. - In October, China's real estate market continued to be weak, with the national real estate climate index falling, sales, completion, and new construction areas all shrinking, and high inventory levels [11][12]. - In October, new and second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities in China declined, and the positive feedback cycle of falling prices and weak sales resumed [14]. 3.1.2 Impact of the End of the US Federal Government Shutdown - The 43 - day US federal government shutdown from October 1 to November 12, 2025, caused a short - term shock to the US economy, with an estimated loss of about $645 billion and a predicted 1.5 - percentage - point reduction in Q4 2025 GDP growth [15][16]. - After the shutdown ended, the release of previously suspended economic data may push up the Fed's December rate - cut expectation, leading to a rise in US stocks and precious metal prices. In the long term, the US economic growth momentum is likely to rebound, which may lead the Fed to pause rate cuts in the first half of 2026, negative for precious metals [16][17]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market Analysis 3.2.1 US Treasury Yields and Dollar Exchange Rates - The US dollar index is expected to oscillate at a low level in the second half of 2025, with a core fluctuation range of 95 - 102. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is expected to be slightly stronger but face upward pressure [19][20]. - The 10 - year US Treasury yield is expected to have a core fluctuation range of 3.8% - 4.5% in the second half of 2025 [22]. 3.2.2 Market Investment Sentiment - As of November 13, 2025, the holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF were 22.4% and 13.8% higher than their May 2024 lows respectively [23]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals Review and Outlook - In the long - term, geopolitical risks and the restructuring of the global trade and monetary system support the long - term bull market of gold. In the medium - term, economic recession risks and liquidity premium expectations make gold prices stronger. In the short - term, gold prices rose due to the Fed's rate - cut expectation but then corrected and rebounded [26][27]. - It is recommended to take a long - position approach in precious metal trading, with London gold expected to reach $4500 and $4800 per ounce in the next six months and one year respectively, and London silver expected to reach $58 and $63 per ounce [30]. 3.2.4 Precious Metals - Related Charts - The gold - to - silver ratio in London and Shanghai showed different trends from June 2024 to October 2025. The correlation between gold and other assets also changed, with the negative correlation between gold and the US dollar index turning positive, and the negative correlation between gold and US Treasury real yields weakening [31].