建信期货能源化工周报-20251114

1. Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Weekly Report [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team, including researchers for different products such as crude oil, asphalt, polyester, etc. [4] 2. Industry Investment Ratings - No specific overall industry investment rating is provided. However, individual product trends and potential investment suggestions are given: - For crude oil, it is recommended to take a short - term bearish approach, such as shorting on rebounds or using reverse spreads [8]. - For asphalt, it is suggested to try shorting as the price is expected to decline [30]. - For polyester (PTA and ethylene glycol), PTA is expected to decline slightly, and ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is better to wait and see [56]. - For short - fiber, the price is expected to be weak, and it is advisable to wait and see [67]. - For polyolefins, the price is expected to remain under pressure and oscillate at the bottom. Although there may be short - term replenishment demand, it is mainly a weak support [85]. - For soda ash, the short - term is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to wait for policy implementation for trading [115]. - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see as the price oscillates due to the balance of long and short factors [147]. - For polysilicon, it is recommended to wait and see and conduct right - side trading after policy implementation [165]. - For pulp, it is recommended to wait and see due to the short - term strong trend but the pressure at the previous high [184]. 3. Core Views - The energy and chemical industry is generally affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and policy expectations. Most products face supply - side pressure, and the demand side shows different degrees of weakness. Crude oil and related products are affected by global supply - demand imbalances, while some chemical products are affected by industry - specific factors such as production capacity changes and downstream demand trends [8][30][85]. 4. Summary by Product Crude Oil - Market Performance: International oil prices fluctuated with a downward trend. WTI and SC prices decreased slightly, while Brent increased slightly. The market is in a situation of supply surplus in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 1st quarter of 2026 [7]. - Supply: OPEC + supply release is relatively stable, but the suspension of production increase in the 1st quarter of 2026 has limited support. Non - OPEC supply continues to increase, and the supply surplus is deepening [9][11]. - Demand: EIA and IEA expect global demand growth to be mainly driven by non - OECD countries, but the growth rate is relatively slow compared to supply growth [10][11]. - Operation Suggestion: Take a short - term bearish approach, such as shorting on rebounds or using reverse spreads [8]. Asphalt - Market Performance: Futures prices declined slightly, and spot prices in various regions also decreased. The cost side is affected by the weakening of the crude oil market, and the demand side in the northern region has declined significantly [29]. - Supply: Some refineries plan to adjust production or conduct maintenance, and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly [29][32]. - Demand: The demand in the northern region has decreased significantly due to weather factors, and the demand in the southern region has also declined marginally [29][33]. - Operation Suggestion: Try shorting as the price is expected to decline [30]. Polyester (PTA and Ethylene Glycol) - Market Performance: PTA cost support was strong first and then weak, and ethylene glycol prices oscillated downward [55]. - Supply: PTA supply is expected to be sufficient, and ethylene glycol supply is expected to increase with the restart of some devices and new device trials [55][56]. - Demand: The demand for polyester is stable in the short term but has a weakening expectation in the future [56]. - Operation Suggestion: PTA is expected to decline slightly, and ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is better to wait and see [56]. Short - fiber - Market Performance: The price of polyester short - fiber in the East China market declined oscillatingly last week [67]. - Supply: The supply is sufficient, and the operating rate is expected to remain stable [67][69]. - Demand: The downstream demand is weak, and the support for short - fiber is gradually weakening [68][69]. - Operation Suggestion: The price is expected to be weak, and it is advisable to wait and see [67]. Polyolefins - Market Performance: Futures and spot prices of polyolefins declined slightly. The market is in a situation of bottom - oscillating due to supply - demand contradictions and cost - side pressure [73][84]. - Supply: The new production capacity is gradually released, and the production is expected to increase. Some maintenance devices will restart, and the production loss will decrease [85][86]. - Demand: The peak season is over, and the demand is expected to weaken. The downstream mainly conducts just - in - time procurement, and the demand support is weak [85]. - Operation Suggestion: The price is expected to remain under pressure and oscillate at the bottom. Although there may be short - term replenishment demand, it is mainly a weak support [85]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: The main contract of soda ash oscillated strongly, and the price fluctuated slightly. The production decreased slightly, and the demand increased slightly [114]. - Supply: The overall supply is loose, and the new production capacity is expected to be released in the future, increasing the supply pressure [119]. - Demand: The demand from downstream glass industries is weak, and the inventory of glass is high, which may further reduce the demand for soda ash [131][132]. - Operation Suggestion: The short - term is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to wait for policy implementation for trading [115]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillated after a short - term rise. The price is affected by factors such as production reduction in the southwest region and news in the photovoltaic industry [147]. - Supply: The production in the southwest region has decreased due to factors such as power cost increases, and the overall supply is affected [148]. - Demand: The demand from the polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon industries has different trends. The demand from the polycrystalline silicon industry is relatively stable, while the organic silicon industry plans to reduce production [149][150]. - Operation Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see as the price oscillates due to the balance of long and short factors [147]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: The price oscillated with a weak start and then a strong end. The price is affected by policy expectations and market news [164]. - Supply: The supply is still higher than the demand, and the actual production reduction needs to be observed [165]. - Demand: The terminal demand has not recovered from the weak stage, and the price increase of polysilicon is limited by the downstream acceptance [165][168]. - Operation Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see and conduct right - side trading after policy implementation [165]. Pulp - Market Performance: The futures price of pulp increased slightly, and the spot price of imported pulp also increased. The short - term trend is strong, but there is pressure at the previous high [183]. - Supply: The supply pressure from domestic and foreign pulp mills is still released to the domestic market, and the inventory has increased [184]. - Demand: The performance of downstream base papers is still differentiated, and the packaging paper market is good, while other base paper prices are stable [184]. - Operation Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see due to the short - term strong trend but the pressure at the previous high [184].