碳市场周报-20251114

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since June this year, the national carbon quota price has been declining, and the current comprehensive price has dropped to around 50 yuan/ton, similar to the opening price in 2021 and over 50% lower than the peak in 2024. As the compliance period approaches, the spot price has rebounded. The optimal carry - forward rate is about 40%, and surplus enterprises can carry forward 60% of their surplus quotas to 2025, but need to apply before June 10, 2026 [9]. - According to the Fudan Carbon Index Research Center's model, in November 2025, the expected buying price of national carbon emission allowances (CEA) is 47.59 yuan/ton, the selling price is 55.42 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 51.51 yuan/ton. In December 2025, the expected buying price is 55.63 yuan/ton, the selling price is 65.35 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 60.50 yuan/ton. In November 2025, the expected buying price of China Certified Emission Reductions (CCER) is 59.67 yuan/ton, the selling price is 68.17 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 63.92 yuan/ton [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Carbon Market Weekly Overview - In October, the highest price of the national carbon market composite price was 59.30 yuan/ton, the lowest was 50.34 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 51.96 yuan/ton, a 10.37% decrease from the same period last month. The trading volume of the listed agreement transaction was 10522.58 million tons, with a turnover of 487.1171 million yuan; the trading volume of the bulk agreement transaction was 3093.67 million tons, with a turnover of 1496.84425 billion yuan; the trading volume of the one - way auction was 10,000 tons, with a turnover of 4.475 million yuan [8]. - In the second week of November, the highest price of the national carbon market quota was 62.48 yuan/ton, the lowest was 57.72 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 60.17 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.12%. The trading volume of the listed agreement transaction was 614.79 million tons, with a turnover of 377.6497 million yuan; the trading volume of the bulk agreement transaction was 1062.71 million tons, with a turnover of 629.8574 million yuan; there was no one - way auction this week. The total trading volume of the national carbon emission quota this week was 1677.50 million tons, and the total turnover was 100.7507 million yuan [9]. 3.2 Market News - Recently, the General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Promoting Green and Low - Carbon Transformation and Strengthening the Construction of the Carbon Market", aiming to expand the coverage of the national carbon emission trading market, implement quota total control and paid allocation, gradually tighten quotas, accelerate the construction of the voluntary emission reduction trading market, and improve the vitality of the national carbon market [11]. - At the 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP30) in Brazil on November 11, Li Gao, the deputy minister of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China, stated that the carbon market has no unified standard model, and China will explore a carbon market system suitable for its national conditions. In the future, it will gradually implement quota total control and paid allocation [11]. - On November 13, Tu Guangshao said at the Taihu World Cultural Forum · Qiantang Dialogue that the carbon market has given rise to the form of carbon assets, and the inclusion of carbon assets in the balance sheet is of great significance in promoting the optimization of the green and low - carbon ecological system. Although the progress of carbon asset inclusion in the balance sheet in China shows a good momentum, the number of enterprises including carbon assets in the balance sheet is still insufficient [11]. 3.3 Market Data - No specific data analysis content provided, only the titles of two figures "Electricity Generation Year - on - Year Growth Rate (%)" and "Newly Installed Photovoltaic Capacity" are given [12]