金融期货周报-20251114

Report Overview - Report Title: Financial Futures Weekly Report [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock indices, the medium - to long - term upward trend remains unchanged due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the new policy expectations from the 14th Five - Year Plan. However, in the short term, the index may fluctuate around the key pressure level of 4000 on the Shanghai Composite Index, and the market style may favor defensive sectors and large - cap blue - chip stocks [13]. - For treasury bonds, the negative factors in the bond market have basically been released, and November is in a stage of accumulating positive factors. Although there are some uncertain disturbances, the overall bond market environment has improved, and investors are advised to seize allocation opportunities in case of market over - adjustment [69][70][71]. - For shipping indices, the freight rate is likely to form a bottom - up trend, but the actual demand may not support a large price increase. It is recommended to short the off - season April contract [93]. 3. Summary by Directory Stock Indices Market Review - The A - share market has shown a trend of "short - term correction followed by strong performance, and rebound after a sharp decline due to external shocks" since the beginning of the year. From November 10 - 14, the A - share market fell with volume, and most major broad - based indices declined. In terms of market style, the consumption and financial sectors led the gains [7][8]. - Externally, the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut has dropped to about 50%. Domestically, the economic data in October showed a weakening of both supply and demand ends, and the marginal pressure on the domestic economy has increased. Although the margin balance has reached a new high, the participation of retail investors is not high. Overall, the medium - to long - term upward trend of stock indices remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are expected [12][13]. 成交持仓分析 - The trading volume of stock index futures showed a differentiated trend this week. The average daily trading volumes of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 111,900, 50,300, 125,900, and 206,400 lots respectively, with changes of + 2,400, + 1,400, - 8,500, and - 12,100 lots compared to last week. The average daily open interest also showed a differentiated trend [14]. 基差、跨期价差及跨品种价差分析 - The basis was negative and widened. The spreads between the next - month and current - month contracts and between the current - quarter and current - month contracts of most varieties showed a negative value, with some spreads widening and some narrowing. In terms of cross - variety spreads, large - cap blue - chip stocks performed relatively better [16][22][24]. 行业板块概况 - In the CSI 300, the consumption, pharmaceutical, and financial sectors led the gains, while the information, communication, and public utility sectors led the losses. In the CSI 500, the consumption, pharmaceutical, and real estate sectors led the gains, and the information, energy, and communication sectors led the losses. At the first - level industry level, the comprehensive, textile and apparel, and commercial retail sectors led the gains, while the electronics, communication, and computer sectors led the losses [26][28]. 估值比较 - As of November 14, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 14.4074, 12.1321, 33.5349, and 48.0448 times respectively, and they were at the 89.38%, 92.76%, 80.04%, and 77.95% quantile levels in the past ten years [32]. Treasury Bonds This Week's Market Review - Treasury Bond Futures Market: The central bank released a loose signal again. The performance of treasury bond futures this week was affected by factors such as inflation data, the central bank's monetary policy report, and the stock market trend. In terms of strategy, there is a certain positive arbitrage space in each contract, and the basis of the 10 - year main contract is slightly high, with the potential for convergence [35][37][40]. - Bond Spot Market: The yields of domestic treasury bond spots fell across the board, while the yields of US treasury bonds rose across the board [57]. - Funding Situation: The inter - bank funding tightened, and the central bank turned to net investment. The funding rate fluctuated, and there was no liquidity stratification between banks and non - banks [60][62]. Market Analysis - The bond market stabilized and strengthened in October. Currently, the economic fundamentals face pressure, and the government's policies release a loose signal. Although there are some uncertain disturbances, the overall bond market environment has improved [69][70][71]. - The economic data in October further weakened, and the social financing growth was lower than expected, which supported the bond market [72]. Next Week's Open Market Maturities and Important Economic Calendar - A large amount of reverse repurchase and treasury cash fixed - deposit will mature next week, and the LPR quotation will be announced on Thursday [79]. Shipping Indices Market Review - The container shipping futures on the European route first rose and then fell. The SCFIS rebounded better than expected, but the shipping companies' reduction of the price increase in late November dampened the price increase expectation at the end of the year [80]. Container Shipping Market Situation - Spot Market: The freight rates of ocean - going routes showed a differentiated trend, with the rates on the European and US routes falling. The shipping companies' reduction of price increase quotations dampened the price increase expectation, and the market is waiting for the actual implementation of the price increase in December [85][86]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals: On the supply side, the container shipping capacity to Europe remains at a relatively high level, and the future supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the macro - demand in the eurozone continues to show a weak recovery, and the demand - side support for container shipping prices is limited [89][90]. Market Outlook - The freight rate is likely to form a bottom - up trend, but the actual demand may not support a large price increase. It is recommended to short the off - season April contract [93].