铁矿石市场周报：发运+到港减少铁矿期价震荡偏强-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound space of the I2601 contract may be limited. Attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risk control. The Fed's expectation of a December interest rate cut has weakened, and the domestic macro - economic data in October was weaker than expected. The iron ore port inventory has increased for eight consecutive weeks, approaching the 160 - million - ton mark. Downstream steel mills generally purchase on demand. The stop - falling and rebound of molten iron support the spot, but the general performance of finished products may squeeze furnace materials [8] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Highlights 3.1.1 Price - As of the close on November 14, the futures price of the iron ore main contract was 772.5 (+12) yuan/ton, and the price of Macarthur fines at Qingdao Port was 838 (+6) yuan/dry ton [6] 3.1.2 Shipment - The total global iron ore shipment decreased by 144,800 tons week - on - week. From November 3 to November 9, 2025, the total global iron ore shipment was 30.69 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 144,800 tons. The total iron ore shipment from Australia and Brazil was 25.486 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.106 million tons [5][6] 3.1.3 Arrival - The arrival volume at 47 ports decreased by 544,800 tons. From November 3 to November 9, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 27.693 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 544,800 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 27.412 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 477,200 tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 15.258 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60,100 tons [6] 3.1.4 Demand - The molten iron output increased by 26,600 tons. The average daily molten iron output was 2.3688 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 9,400 tons [6] 3.1.5 Inventory - The port inventory increased by 188,710 tons. As of November 14, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 158.1284 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 188,710 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 47,670 tons. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 90.7601 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 66,070 tons [6] 3.1.6 Profitability - The profitability rate of steel mills was 38.96%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 18.62 percentage points [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price - This week, the I2601 contract fluctuated higher. The price of the I2601 contract was stronger than that of the I2605 contract. On the 14th, the price difference was 29 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8.5 yuan/ton [14] 3.2.2 Warehouse Receipt and Net Position - On November 14, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 900, a week - on - week increase of 100. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the ore futures contract was 27,363, a decrease of 8,080 compared with the previous week [21] 3.2.3 Spot Price - On November 14, the price of 61% Australian Macarthur fines at Qingdao Port was reported at 838 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 6 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was weaker than the futures price. On the 14th, the basis was 65 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton [27] 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Arrival Volume - From November 3 to November 9, 2025, the total arrival volume at 45 ports in China decreased. The total global iron ore shipment and the total shipment from Australia and Brazil both decreased week - on - week [31] 3.3.2 Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 158.1284 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 188,710 tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 3.4028 million tons, an increase of 47,300 tons. The inventory of Australian ore, Brazilian ore, and trade ore all increased. The total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills in China was 90.7601 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 66,070 tons; the daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills was 2.9263 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 39,300 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 31.02 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 days [34] 3.3.3 Inventory Availability Days - As of November 13, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore for large and medium - sized steel mills in China was 21 days, a week - on - week increase of 0 days. On November 13, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2077, a week - on - week decrease of 27 [39] 3.3.4 Import Volume and Mine Capacity Utilization - In October, China imported 111.309 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, a decrease of 5.017 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3%; from January to October, the cumulative import was 1.028886 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.7%. As of November 14, the capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 63.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%; the average daily output of concentrate powder was 401,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24,000 tons; the inventory was 396,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 241,000 tons [42] 3.3.5 Domestic Iron Ore Concentrate Output - In September 2025, China's iron ore raw ore output was 84.267 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.6337 million tons; from January to August, the cumulative output was 755.6713 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.32%. In September, the output of iron concentrate powder from 433 domestic iron mines was 22.845 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 356,000 tons, a decrease of 1.5%; from January to September, the cumulative output was 206.918 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 8.918 million tons, a decrease of 4.1% [46] 3.4 Downstream Situation 3.4.1 Crude Steel Output - In October 2025, China's crude steel output was 72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%. From January to October, China's crude steel output was 817.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [49] 3.4.2 Steel Import and Export - In October 2025, China exported 9.782 million tons of steel, a year - on - year decrease of 12.5%; imported 503,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. From January to October, the cumulative steel export was 97.737 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%; the cumulative import was 5.041 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9% [49] 3.4.3 Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Molten Iron Output - On November 14, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.81%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.32 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.73 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 88.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.99 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.22 percentage points; the average daily molten iron output was 2.3688 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 9,400 tons [52] 3.5 Options Market - Consider buying out - of - the - money put options on rebounds as the molten iron output has stopped falling and rebounded, but the iron ore port inventory continues to increase, and the general performance of finished products may squeeze furnace materials [55]