中国市场周启动_摩根士丹利中国指数上涨 1%；高盛发布十年全球股票回报预测；10 月信贷与经济活动数据普遍低于预期

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for Chinese stocks, with Goldman Sachs expecting 10.4% annualized total returns over the next decade [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that MXCN gained 1% while A-shares slipped 1%, with October credit and activity data broadly missing expectations [1]. - The PBOC adopted a less dovish tone in its Q3 monetary policy report, leading to a revision in policy rate cut expectations [1]. - The report notes that Alibaba is launching the "Qwen" personal AI assistant project to compete with ChatGPT, indicating a focus on technological advancements [1]. - Southbound Connect saw US$3.2 billion inflows this week, reflecting investor interest in Chinese equities [1]. - Real export growth is expected to be 5-6% year-on-year in the coming years, despite uncertainties surrounding US tariff policies [1]. Performance Summary - MXCN/CSI300 12-month forward P/Es are reported at 13.0x and 14.6x respectively, with EPS growth estimates for 2025/26 at 2%/16% for MXCN and 14%/14% for CSI300 [8]. - The report emphasizes that AI beneficiaries have significantly contributed to North Asia's year-to-date performance, with Taiwan, Korea, and China showing strong gains [11]. - The report suggests that A shares are likely to modestly outperform H shares in the next three months [22]. Sector and Market Insights - The report identifies key sectors for investment, favoring Internet/Media/Entertainment, Consumer Retail & Durables, and Tech Hardware & Semiconductors, while being underweight on Telecom Services and Utilities [10]. - The macro backdrop is seen as favorable for global and domestic cyclicals along with dollar-sensitive sectors [10]. - The report indicates that 83% of all China-listed companies have reported earnings so far, with 9M/3Q25 earnings rising 6%/11% year-on-year [20].