Report Overview - Industry: Eggs [1] - Date: November 17, 2025 [2] Report Core View - The spot market has weakened again this week. The prices of pink eggs in Hubei and Hunan have gradually declined, while the prices of red eggs in the north have remained stable. The market sales have returned to a slow pace. Considering the cooler temperature and better egg storage conditions, there will be no significant price drops as in the rainy season and summer. Egg prices are expected to adjust narrowly at a low level next week. [8] - In the futures market, due to the temporary weakness of the spot market, prices have declined this week. The near - term contracts have dropped significantly as they are approaching delivery, while the far - term contracts are relatively firm due to the expectation of a decline in inventory. [8] - Fundamentally, the laying - hen inventory decreased month - on - month for the first time in October, indicating that the poor breeding profits have gradually affected the supply side. The monthly replenishment data in the past four months shows that the laying - hen inventory is expected to decline slightly in the medium term. The longer the low - price period in the fourth quarter, the greater the probability and elasticity of a market reversal in the first quarter and second quarter of next year. [8] - In terms of operation, the market is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. The low spot price may continue for some time. Opportunities for long positions in far - term contracts can be considered on dips, but there may still be fluctuations in the near term. A reverse spread between near - term and far - term contracts is advisable. [8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: The prices of egg futures contracts 2601, 2602, and 2512 have declined, with decreases of 1.73%, 0.13%, and 0.26% respectively. The average price in the main production areas is 2.97 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas is 3.28 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous day. [7] - Operation Suggestions: Treat the market as a low - level fluctuation in the short term. Pay attention to long - position opportunities in far - term contracts on dips, and consider a reverse spread between near - term and far - term contracts. [8] 2. Industry News - Inventory: As of the end of October 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.359 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%, ending the previous continuous growth trend, but a year - on - year increase of 5.59% compared to October 2024. [9] - Replenishment: In October 2025, the monthly output of laying - hen chicks in sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, slightly less than 39.2 million in September 2025 and significantly less than 44.83 million in the same period of 2024. The total replenishment from July to October 2025 was about 158.14 million, compared with about 176.1 million in the same period of 2024. [9][10] 3. Data Overview - Elimination Volume: As of November 13, 2025, the national elimination volumes of laying hens in the previous three weeks were 20.53 million, 19.81 million, and 19.47 million respectively, showing a downward trend. [18] - Elimination Age: As of November 13, 2025, the average elimination age of laying hens was 493 days, unchanged from the previous week and 6 days earlier than the previous month. [18]
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20251117
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-11-17 01:50