白糖日报-20251117

Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report - Date: November 17, 2025 - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team - Researchers: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The New York raw sugar futures fluctuated, and the main March contract closed down 0.78% to 13.96 cents per pound. The London ICE white sugar futures main March contract closed down 0.91% to $412.60 per ton. The raw sugar maintained a volatile market, with a weak rebound as the Northern Hemisphere's major producing countries are in the harvest season. - The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar fell sharply. The 01 contract closed at 5,470 yuan per ton, down 18 yuan or 0.33%, with a reduction of 11,425 positions. The domestic sugar spot price remained flat. The market is waiting for the new sugar to be listed in Guangxi, and there is no obvious bullish or bearish driver for the time being. The rise of Zhengzhou sugar was due to speculative funds, but these funds have started to withdraw, and the previous speculative short - position holders have reduced their positions. It is expected that the market will be weakly volatile [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market Conditions: The SR601 contract closed at 5,470 yuan per ton, down 18 yuan or 0.33%, with a position of 370,242 contracts and a reduction of 11,425 contracts. The SR605 contract closed at 5,404 yuan per ton, down 11 yuan or 0.20%, with a position of 122,174 contracts and an increase of 4,427 contracts. The US sugar 03 contract closed at 13.96 cents per pound, down 0.11 cents or 0.78%, with a position of 179,097 contracts and an increase of 6,776 contracts. The US sugar 05 contract closed at 14.43 cents per pound, down 0.09 cents or 0.62%, with a position of 486,827 contracts and a reduction of 1,285 contracts [7]. - Analysis of Market Trends: The New York raw sugar futures fluctuated, and the London ICE white sugar futures also declined. The raw sugar market is in a volatile state with a weak rebound. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar fell sharply, and the market is waiting for the new sugar in Guangxi. The rise was due to speculative funds, and now these funds are withdrawing, and short - position holders are reducing positions. It is expected to be weakly volatile [7][8]. 3.2 Industry News - Indonesia's Sugar Self - sufficiency Plan: Indonesia plans to achieve sugar self - sufficiency by 2026, with a goal of consumer sugar self - sufficiency by 2028 and full self - sufficiency including industrial and ethanol demand by 2030. The president has urged the acceleration of this schedule [11]. - Sugar Mill Start - up in Yunnan: As of now, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the number of sugar mills in Yunnan that have started production has reached 4, an increase of 1 compared to the same period last year. The planned design capacity of the started sugar mills is 13,200 tons per day, an increase of 9,700 tons per day compared to the same period last year [11]. - Global Sugar Surplus Adjustment: DATAGRO adjusted the global sugar surplus forecast for the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season (starting in October) from 2.8 million tons to 1 million tons, due to the sugar production reduction in Brazil and India. The sugar production forecast in the central - southern region of Brazil was revised from 41.1 million tons to 40.8 million tons, and the sugar - making ratio of sugarcane was adjusted from 51.6% to 51.2% [11]. 3.3 Data Overview - Transaction Data of the Top 20 Seats in the Main Contract of Zhengzhou Sugar: The total trading volume was 217,607 lots, a decrease of 53,457 lots; the total long - position volume was 250,939 lots, a decrease of 6,309 lots; the total short - position volume was 285,700 lots, a decrease of 12,297 lots [23].