Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the near - term TA partial device maintenance led to a decline in the start - up rate, polyester load decreased, inventory continued to accumulate, and the basis remained weak while the spot processing fee improved slightly. PX start - up rate declined due to unexpected domestic maintenance, overseas devices ran stably, PXN strengthened month - on - month, disproportionation benefits remained weak and isomerization benefits weakened, and the US - Asia aromatics spread remained stable. In the future, TA will maintain a high maintenance state, downstream especially filament and staple fiber show no obvious pressure, combined with India's revocation of BIS certification, the inventory accumulation slope of TA is not high, and there are limited new productions in the far - month. The PX pattern is good, so pay attention to the opportunities of buying low for positive spreads and expanding processing fees [2]. - For MEG, the near - term domestic oil - based production increased the load, coal - based production had some maintenance and load reduction, the overall start - up rate declined, the restart of some overseas devices was postponed, the port inventory accumulated at the beginning of next week, the arrival forecast remained high during the week, the basis weakened, and the coal - based profit was low. In the short term, EG inventory accumulation is expected to continue, but considering that the profit is already at a low level after the coal price strengthened, the supply side may have some reduction in stages, and the space for further weakening of the current valuation is limited. In the long term, with new device launches and the suppression of warehouse receipts on the disk structure, the overall pattern is expected to weaken [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, the near - term device operation was stable, the start - up rate remained at 97.5%, the production and sales remained weak, and the inventory increased month - on - month. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material inventory decreased while finished product inventory decreased, and the profit remained stable. Although the profit and start - up rate of polyester yarn did not improve significantly, the staple fiber's own exports maintained high growth, showing that there was no obvious inventory accumulation under high start - up. In the short term, new capacity launches are relatively limited, so pay attention to the opportunities of expanding processing fees at low prices and the situation of warehouse receipts [2]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory remained stable at a relatively low absolute level, the price of Thai cup rubber remained stable, and rainfall affected rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [6]. - For benzene - related products, the prices of relevant products such as ethylene, pure benzene, and styrene changed, and the domestic profits of PS, ABS, EPS, etc. also showed corresponding changes. The Asian spreads and production profits of these products need to be continuously monitored [9]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs PTA - Market data: From November 10 - 14, 2025, the daily average basis of PTA spot transactions was 2601(-76). The PTA device of Sichuan Energy Investment with a capacity of 1 million tons was under maintenance. The start - up rate decreased month - on - month, polyester load decreased, inventory continued to accumulate, the basis remained weak, and the spot processing fee improved slightly. PX start - up rate declined due to unexpected domestic maintenance, overseas devices ran stably, PXN strengthened month - on - month, disproportionation benefits remained weak and isomerization benefits weakened, and the US - Asia aromatics spread remained stable [2]. - Outlook: TA will maintain a high maintenance state, downstream especially filament and staple fiber show no obvious pressure, combined with India's revocation of BIS certification, the inventory accumulation slope of TA is not high, and there are limited new productions in the far - month. The PX pattern is good, so pay attention to the opportunities of buying low for positive spreads and expanding processing fees [2]. MEG - Market data: From November 10 - 14, 2025, the basis was around +54 for 01. The MEG devices of Hongsifang with a capacity of 300,000 tons and Huayi with a capacity of 200,000 tons were under maintenance. The near - term domestic oil - based production increased the load, coal - based production had some maintenance and load reduction, the overall start - up rate declined, the restart of some overseas devices was postponed, the port inventory accumulated at the beginning of next week, the arrival forecast remained high during the week, the basis weakened, and the coal - based profit was low [2]. - Outlook: In the short term, EG inventory accumulation is expected to continue, but considering that the profit is already at a low level after the coal price strengthened, the supply side may have some reduction in stages, and the space for further weakening of the current valuation is limited. In the long term, with new device launches and the suppression of warehouse receipts on the disk structure, the overall pattern is expected to weaken [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Market data: From November 10 - 14, 2025, the spot price was around 6317, and the market basis was around - 20 for December. The near - term device operation was stable, the start - up rate remained at 97.5%, the production and sales remained weak, and the inventory increased month - on - month. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material inventory decreased while finished product inventory decreased, and the profit remained stable [2]. - Outlook: Although the profit and start - up rate of polyester yarn did not improve significantly, the staple fiber's own exports maintained high growth, showing that there was no obvious inventory accumulation under high start - up. In the short term, new capacity launches are relatively limited, so pay attention to the opportunities of expanding processing fees at low prices and the situation of warehouse receipts [2]. Natural Rubber - Market data: From November 1 - 14, 2025, prices of various types of rubber such as Thai glue, Hainan glue, and different rubber products in the market changed. The national explicit inventory remained stable at a relatively low absolute level, the price of Thai cup rubber remained stable, and rainfall affected rubber tapping [6]. - Strategy: Wait and see [6]. Benzene - related Products - Market data: From November 10 - 14, 2025, prices of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia), pure benzene (CFR China), and other products changed. The Asian spreads and domestic profits of PS, ABS, EPS, etc. also showed corresponding changes. For example, the price of pure benzene increased by 30 - 50, and the domestic profit of PS increased by 50 [9]. - Analysis: Continuously monitor the Asian spreads and production profits of these products [9].
芳烃橡胶早报-20251117
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-11-17 02:12