动力煤周报-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of thermal coal remains stable, with normal production in most mines. Recently, prices in some production areas have weakened, and the premium rate of auctions has narrowed, leading to a slight decline in market sentiment. The upward trend of port prices has slowed down, and the sentiment of traders to hold prices has weakened. - Policy disturbances still exist, and the supply side needs continuous monitoring. Although the overall inventory of thermal coal is relatively safe, the changes in power plant and port inventories need to be closely watched. - In the short term, due to intensified downstream gaming, thermal coal faces certain callback pressure. It is expected that the subsequent shipping profit will expand, and after the callback, there will still be support for the overall price. The upside potential mainly depends on the actual downstream demand, and continuous tracking of daily consumption and inventory changes is required. [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - Supply: In October 2025, China imported 41.737 million tons of coal, a year - on - year decrease of 9.75% and a month - on - month decrease of 9.27%. From January to October 2025, the total coal imports were 387.623 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11%. The weekly output of main production area mines was 27.38 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.9%, and the capacity utilization rate was 83%, a week - on - week increase of 0.8%. [9] - Demand: Terminal coal consumption in thermal power remains at a medium level, and as the heating season approaches, power plants are expected to release some restocking space. In the non - power sector, the chemical industry has rigid restocking demand, and coal consumption is at a medium - high level. However, some downstream users are somewhat resistant to high - priced coal. Alternative energy power generation performs well, accounting for about 35% of the total power generation. [9] - Inventory: The total social inventory is 204.18 million tons, a week - on - week increase of about 0.9%, slightly lower than the same period last year. Power plant inventory is 132.39 million tons (a week - on - week increase of about 0.86%), showing a slight inventory build - up, while port inventory is 57.03 million tons (a week - on - week decrease of about 0.34%). [9] - Policy: The National Energy Administration has issued a series of policies, including promoting stable and increased production in the coal industry, strengthening the overall planning and management of coal mine areas, emphasizing the reduction of non - power coal consumption, and organizing inspections of coal mine production. [9] 3.2 Price and Profit - Production Area Prices: In Inner Mongolia, the prices of Q5500, Q5000, and Q4500 decreased by 0.9%, 1.0%, and 0.0% week - on - week respectively; in Shaanxi, the prices of Q5500, Q5000, and Q4500 decreased by 0.8%, 0.9%, and 1.0% week - on - week respectively. The prices of Q6200 and Q6000 in Shaanxi remained unchanged. [14] - Port Prices: The upward trend of port prices has slowed down, with actual transaction prices ranging from 830 to 850 yuan/ton. The prices of different calorific values at Qinhuangdao Port and Guangzhou Port have shown varying degrees of week - on - week increases. [17][19] - International Prices: The international thermal coal spot prices in regions such as NEWC, ARA, and RB have shown different week - on - week changes, with NEWC increasing by 2.43% week - on - week, while ARA and RB remained unchanged. [28] - Shipping Profits: The shipping profits in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Shaanxi vary, with Inner Mongolia having a shipping loss of 50 yuan/ton for CV5500, Shanxi breaking even, and Shaanxi having a loss of 38 yuan/ton. [48] 3.3 Other Fundamental Data - Supply - Side Data: The cumulative production of raw coal in different regions from 2021 - 2025 is presented, as well as the monthly production data of different regions. The production and capacity utilization rates of coal mines in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi are also shown. [53][54][56] - Import Data: In October 2025, China's coal imports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The import data from January to September 2025 shows different trends for different countries such as Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and Mongolia. [62][69] - Demand - Side Data: The electricity consumption data of different industries and the power generation data of different power sources (thermal, hydro, nuclear, wind, solar) are provided, including monthly and cumulative data, as well as data for different time intervals such as ten - day periods. The coal consumption data of different industries such as building materials, metallurgy, and chemicals are also presented. [76][86][91][126] - Transportation and Inventory Data: The transportation data of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway, comprehensive transportation indices, and logistics data of northern ports are shown. The inventory data of different ports and the overall social, power plant, and production area inventories are also provided. [158][162][167][169]