有色早报-20251117

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Supported by the precious metals market, copper prices were relatively strong in the first half of the week and adjusted on Friday. The downstream point - price volume rebounded significantly. In the future, the price around 85,000 may become the psychological price for downstream point - pricing [1]. - Overseas production suspension news and expectations boosted the domestic aluminum price to be stronger than the overseas price. Short - term profit - taking led to a correction in the Shanghai aluminum futures. Aluminum ingots continued to accumulate inventory, while aluminum rods, sheets, foils saw a slight reduction in inventory. The downstream consumption was fair, and the acceptance of high prices increased. In the short term, it may show a fluctuating trend [2]. - Zinc prices fluctuated this week. The domestic and imported TC declined further. The supply of domestic ore will tighten marginally from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. The demand is seasonally weak domestically, while overseas, European demand is average and Middle - East demand has high growth. The price center may not decline deeply. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities with caution in position - building, and focus on the positive arbitrage opportunity of 01 - 03 for the month - spread [5]. - For nickel, the supply side saw a slight decline in pure nickel production, the demand side was weak, and the inventory continued to accumulate both at home and abroad. With continuous disturbances in the Indonesian ore end and the policy side having a motivation to support prices, it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [6]. - For stainless steel, the supply increased slightly in October, the demand was mainly for rigid needs, the cost remained stable, and the inventory was at a high level. With the Indonesian policy side having a motivation to support prices, it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [7]. - Lead prices fluctuated at a high level this week. The supply - side contradiction was partially alleviated, and the social inventory increased. The demand side had a weakening expectation. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate within a narrow range next week, and it is recommended to wait and see the resumption of recycled production and the increase in warehouse receipts [8][9]. - Tin prices rose this week. The supply - side was gradually recovering, and the demand was mainly supported by rigid needs. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the long term, it is advisable to hold at a low price close to the cost or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [12]. - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand are expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state in Q4, with prices expected to fluctuate. In the long term, prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle based on the seasonal marginal cost [16]. - Lithium carbonate prices were strong due to the expected lithium - battery demand and market bullish sentiment. The supply - side price elasticity is high after the disturbances are resolved, and the long - term pattern may change in the next 1 - 2 years if the energy - storage demand remains high and the power demand is stable [18]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Inventory: From November 10 - 14, the spot import profit decreased by 181.03, and the LME inventory decreased by 450 tons [1]. - Market Analysis: This week, copper prices fluctuated narrowly. The downstream point - price volume rebounded. The market has both liquidity easing expectations and AI bubble risks [1]. Aluminum - Price and Inventory: From November 10 - 14, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased slightly, and the social inventory remained unchanged [1]. - Market Analysis: Overseas production suspension news and expectations boosted the domestic price, but short - term profit - taking led to a correction. The downstream consumption was fair, and it may fluctuate in the short term [2]. Zinc - Price and Inventory: From November 10 - 14, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 140 yuan, and the LME inventory increased by 1175 tons [5]. - Market Analysis: The supply - side TC declined, and the demand was seasonally weak domestically. The export window has opened, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [5]. Nickel - Price and Inventory: From November 10 - 14, the Shanghai nickel price decreased by 950 yuan, and the inventory continued to accumulate [6]. - Market Analysis: The supply side saw a slight decline in production, the demand was weak, and it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [6]. Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory: From November 10 - 14, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, etc. remained unchanged, and the inventory was at a high level [6][21]. - Market Analysis: The supply increased slightly, the demand was mainly for rigid needs, and it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [7]. Lead - Price and Inventory: From November 10 - 14, the lead price fluctuated at a high level, and the social inventory increased slightly [8][9]. - Market Analysis: The supply - side contradiction was partially alleviated, the demand had a weakening expectation, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly next week [8][9]. Tin - Price and Inventory: From November 10 - 14, the tin price rose, and the LME inventory increased by 10 tons [12]. - Market Analysis: The supply - side was gradually recovering, and the demand was mainly supported by rigid needs. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and hold at a low price in the long term [12]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory: From November 10 - 14, the basis of different grades increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 42 [16]. - Market Analysis: The supply and demand are expected to be balanced and slightly loose in Q4, and prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and cycle at the bottom in the long term [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory: From November 10 - 14, the SMM electric - carbon and industrial - carbon prices increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 338 [18]. - Market Analysis: Driven by demand expectations and bullish sentiment, prices were strong. The supply - side price elasticity is high, and the long - term pattern may change in 1 - 2 years [18].