原油成品油早报-20251117

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices remained volatile, with fluctuations during trading sessions due to news of potential Russia-Ukraine negotiations on Thursday and the suspension of oil exports from Russia's Novorossiysk port on Friday. The fundamentals maintain a pattern of oversupply and increased uncertainty regarding Russian sanctions. The US sanctions against Russia will take effect on November 21, and short - term statements from the US and Russia will influence market expectations. US EIA commercial crude oil inventories are increasing, while global oil inventories are slightly decreasing. Due to high gasoline and diesel profits, refinery operations in Europe and the US have recently recovered, but the maintenance rate of Middle - Eastern refineries remains relatively high. In the short term, disruptions at Russian ports support the Dubai monthly spread, but global supply pressure and OPEC's potential production increase plans limit the upside. In the short term, the monthly spread and absolute prices will remain volatile, and a short - selling strategy is recommended for the fourth quarter [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From November 10 - 14, 2025, WTI crude oil prices increased by $1.40, BRENT by $1.38, and DUBAI by $0.73. The BRENT 2 - month spread increased by $0.10, and other related price differentials also showed corresponding changes [3]. - During the same period, SC - related prices and price differentials, domestic gasoline and diesel prices, and their differentials with BRT also changed. For example, the domestic gasoline price decreased by 30 yuan, and the domestic gasoline - BRT differential decreased by 109 yuan [3]. - Japanese naphtha, Singapore fuel oil, and related futures contract prices and their differentials with BRT also had certain fluctuations. For example, the Japanese naphtha - BRT differential decreased by $2.15 [3]. 3.2 Daily News - Russia's Novorossiysk port resumed oil loading operations after a two - day suspension due to a Ukrainian drone attack. The port's daily oil export volume of 2.2 million barrels was suspended on Friday, equivalent to 2% of global supply, and the attack pushed international oil prices up by over 2% [3]. - Ukraine claimed to have attacked a refinery in Russia's Samara Oblast and updated the results of an attack on the Ryazan refinery, but the involved enterprises did not comment [4]. - Russian President Putin had a conversation with Rosneft President Sechin. The US imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies last month [4]. 3.3 Inventory Data - According to the EIA report for the week of November 7, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.551 million barrels per day to 2.816 million barrels per day; domestic production increased by 211,000 barrels to 13.862 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 6.413 million barrels to 428 million barrels, a 1.52% increase; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.606 million barrels per day, a 0.95% decrease compared to the same period last year; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 798,000 barrels to 410.4 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; and commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 5.222 million barrels per day, a decrease of 702,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [5]. - As of the week of November 12, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 21.181 million barrels, an increase of 3.204 million barrels from the previous week [5]. - As of the week of November 8, Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 353,966 kiloliters to 10,379,001 kiloliters [5]. - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending November 7 was 1.3 million barrels, compared with a previous value of 6.521 million barrels [5]. - From November 7 - 13, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. Gasoline inventory was 10.4149 million tons, a 1.52% decrease, and diesel inventory was 12.8156 million tons, a 0.63% decrease. The comprehensive refining profit of major refineries and local refineries rebounded [5].