LPG早报-20251117

Group 1: Report Core Information - The report is an LPG morning report by the energy and chemical team of the research center on November 17, 2025, presenting data from November 10 - 14, 2025 [4] Group 2: Daily Changes - On Friday, for civil LPG, prices were 4364 (-4) in East China, 4400 (+0) in Shandong, and 4460 (-30) in South China; ether - post - carbon four was 4630 (+0). The lowest delivery location was East China with a basis of 1 (-43), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 93 (-8). FEI was 502 (-1) and CP was 481 (-1) dollars/ton [4] Group 3: Weekly Views - The PG main contract showed a strong trend. The basis was 1 (-101), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 93 (+21). The cheapest delivery product was civil LPG in East China at 4364 (-10), 4440 (+60) in Shandong, 4460 (+10) in South China; ether - post - carbon four was 4630 (+130) [4] - The overseas paper cargo prices rose, the oil - gas ratio weakened slightly; the month spread strengthened; the domestic - foreign price difference weakened, with PG - CP at 128 (-9) and PG - FEI at 111 (-2) [4] - The discount strengthened. The arrival discount of propane in East China was 78 (+8), and the FOB discounts of AFEI, Middle East, and US propane were -2.75 dollars (+3.75), 22 dollars (+13), and 39 dollars (+13) respectively [4] - Freight rates weakened slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -66 (+7). The naphtha crack spread changed little and remained at a relatively high level this year [4] - The profit of propylene production from PDH in Shandong recovered slightly; the profit of alkylation units deteriorated; the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit remained good [4] - Domestic production decreased slightly, arrivals were limited, factory inventories decreased slightly, and port inventories decreased. The PDH operating rate was 71.74% (-3.71), with Donghua Zhangjiagang restarted and Juzhengyuan and Haiwei under maintenance and shut - down [4] - Overall, the domestic chemical market is strong, there is an expectation of a strong peak season for civil use, but the futures price is over - valued; the international propane market pattern is loose, and attention should be paid to the weather and cold snaps in the US [4]