沪镍、不锈钢早报-20251117

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 沪镍: The nickel price fluctuated weakly last week and was under downward pressure. The medium - and long - term supply is expected to be abundant, and the inventory is continuously increasing. The conclusion is that the nickel contract 2512 will fluctuate weakly, be under downward pressure, and test the previous low [2]. - 不锈钢: The spot stainless - steel price declined, the cost line continued to move down, and the inventory increased significantly. The stainless - steel contract 2601 will fluctuate weakly, be under pressure, and test the previous low [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 沪镍 - Fundamentals: Nickel ore prices are firm, but nickel iron prices continue to fall. Stainless - steel inventory is rising, and the supply is excessive. New nickel production capacity is put into operation while some production is cut. The medium - and long - term supply is strong, and the inventory is piling up. The new energy vehicle industry has limited impact on nickel demand. The overall situation is bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 119,600, and the basis is 2,520, which is bullish [2]. - Inventory: LME inventory is 252,090 (+120), and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 35,027 (+2,333), which is bearish [2]. - Market: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. 不锈钢 - Fundamentals: The spot stainless - steel price has fallen. The short - term nickel ore price is firm, the shipping freight is stable, the nickel iron price has declined, the cost line continues to move down, and the stainless - steel inventory has increased significantly. The situation is neutral [4]. - Basis: The average stainless - steel price is 13,437.5, and the basis is 1,057.5, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipts are 70,365 (-832), which is neutral [4]. - Market: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [4]. Price Overview - Nickel: On November 14, the prices of various types of nickel (SMM1 electrolytic nickel, 1金川 nickel, 1进口 nickel, nickel beans) all decreased compared to November 13. The prices of nickel futures (沪镍主力, 伦镍电) also declined [11]. - Stainless steel: The prices of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in different regions (Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, Shanghai) either remained unchanged or decreased slightly [11]. Inventory - Nickel: As of November 14, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 40,573 tons, with the futures inventory at 35,027 tons, an increase of 3,386 tons and 2,393 tons respectively. The total inventory increased by 2,453 tons [13][14]. - Stainless steel: On November 14, the Wuxi inventory was 584,800 tons, the Foshan inventory was 347,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,071,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 36,500 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 660,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,400 tons. The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 832 to 70,365 [18][19]. Price of Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron - Nickel ore: The prices of red - soil nickel ore (Ni1.5%, Ni0.9%) remained unchanged on November 14 compared to November 13. The shipping freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port also remained stable [22]. - Nickel iron: The price of high - nickel iron decreased by 1.5 yuan per nickel point, while the price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged [22]. Stainless - Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost is 12,626, the scrap - steel production cost is 12,882, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost is 16,388 [24]. Nickel Import Cost - The calculated import price is 119,212 yuan per ton [26].