焦煤焦炭早报（2025-11-17）-20251117

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Coking Coal: After the fourth round of coke price increase, coke enterprise profits have slightly recovered, and daily hot metal production has increased, improving demand. However, downstream inventory is at a reasonable level, and the procurement pace has slowed. Considering the limited profitability of downstream coke and steel enterprises, procurement remains mainly for essential needs. Therefore, coking coal prices are expected to remain stable in the short term [3]. - Coke: After four rounds of price increases, coke enterprise profit pressure has slightly eased. However, high coking coal prices have increased production costs, limiting the enthusiasm for increasing production. Environmental protection has also affected coke supply. Currently, coke enterprises are actively shipping, with smooth sales and low inventory. Although the market sentiment has cooled slightly, considering the stable and slightly increasing daily coke consumption due to the resumption of some blast furnaces and the limited short - term supply, coke prices are expected to remain stable in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Fundamentals: The resumption of production in major coal - producing areas is slower than expected, and safety production assessments may further suppress output. Market sentiment has cooled, downstream procurement is cautious, and intermediate trade has become less active. Coke enterprise开工 has declined, and there is strong resistance to high - priced coal. Although coal mines mainly execute previous orders and mostly hold prices, some have made slight adjustments [4]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1380, and the basis is 188, with the spot at a premium to the futures [4]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 781.1 million tons, port inventory is 295 million tons, independent coke enterprise inventory is 819.3 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 1895.4 million tons, a decrease of 76.2 million tons from last week [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [4]. - Main Position: The main coking coal position is net long, and the long position is increasing [4]. - Factors Affecting Price: Positive factors include an increase in hot metal production and limited supply growth; negative factors include slower procurement of raw coal by coke and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [6]. Coke - Fundamentals: After four rounds of price increases, coke enterprise profit pressure has eased slightly. However, high coking coal prices have increased production costs, and environmental protection has affected supply. Coke enterprises are actively shipping, with smooth sales and low inventory [7]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1680, and the basis is 10.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures [7]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 650.8 million tons, port inventory is 195.1 million tons, independent coke enterprise inventory is 42.5 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 888.4 million tons, a decrease of 8.1 million tons from last week [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - Main Position: The main coke position is net short, and the short position is increasing [7]. - Factors Affecting Price: Positive factors include an increase in hot metal production and a simultaneous increase in blast furnace operating rates; negative factors include squeezed steel mill profit margins and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [9]. Price The report provides the port metallurgical coke price index on November 14 (17:30), including prices, price changes, and other information for different types of metallurgical coke in various ports [11]. Inventory - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 295 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons from last week [19]. - Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory: Coking coal inventory of independent coke enterprises is 819.3 million tons, a decrease of 69.2 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 million tons, an increase of 3.5 million tons from last week [23]. - Steel Mill Inventory: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [28]. Other Data - Coke Oven Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].