大越期货螺卷早报-20251117

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - For rebar, with weak demand, rising inventory at a low level, and a downward - trending real estate industry, it should be treated with a volatile and bearish mindset [2]. - For hot - rolled coils, considering factors such as inventory increase, export obstacles, and domestic capacity - reduction plans, a volatile and bearish approach is also recommended [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - Fundamentals: Demand shows no improvement, inventory is rising from a low level, and traders' purchasing willingness is still weak. The real estate industry remains in a downward cycle, which is bearish [2]. - Basis: The rebar spot price is 3190, and the basis is 137, which is bullish [2]. - Inventory: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 4.1575 million tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year, which is neutral [2]. - Market: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat, which is bearish [2]. - Main positions: The net position of the main rebar contract is short, and short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - Likely factors: Bullish factors include low production, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations; bearish factors are the continued downward cycle of the downstream real estate industry and weak terminal demand [4]. Hot - rolled Coils - Fundamentals: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may take effect, which is neutral [7]. - Basis: The hot - rolled coil spot price is 3260, and the basis is 4, which is neutral [7]. - Inventory: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 3.33 million tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year, which is bearish [7]. - Market: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is neutral [7]. - Main positions: The net position of the main hot - rolled coil contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [7]. - Likely factors: Bullish factors include decent demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations; bearish factors are that downstream demand has entered a seasonal off - season and the outlook is pessimistic [8][9].