大越期货玻璃早报-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the glass industry are weak. With production profit recovery being sluggish, supply at a historically low level for the same period, downstream deep - processing orders overall weak and below the same period of previous years, and real - estate terminal demand being feeble, the inventory is at a high level. The glass market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract decreased from 1056 yuan/ton to 1032 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.27%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - size glass decreased from 1032 yuan/ton to 1028 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.39%. The main basis changed from - 24 yuan/ton to - 4 yuan/ton, a change of - 83.33% [5]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - size boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 1028 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous day [10]. Fundamentals - Cost Side - The production profit of glass has a slow recovery, with the supply at a historically low level for the same period [2]. Fundamentals - Production - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 222, with an operating rate of 75%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historically low level for the same period. The daily melting capacity of national float glass is 159,100 tons, and the production capacity is also at a historically low level for the same period [21][23]. Fundamentals - Demand - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.7082 million tons [26]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 63.247 million weight - boxes, an increase of 0.18% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [2][39]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio of float glass from 2017 to 2024E are presented in the balance sheet. For example, in 2024E, the production is 55.1 million tons, the consumption is 53.1 million tons, the production growth rate is 3.94%, and the consumption growth rate is - 1.15% [40]. Influencing Factors - Positive factors: Under the influence of "anti - involution" policies and environmental protection policies, the production capacity of the float glass industry has been cleared, such as the "coal - to - gas" conversion in the Shahe area and industry cold repairs, resulting in production losses [3]. - Negative factors: The main logic is that the glass supply has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, the downstream's phased inventory replenishment has ended, and the glass factory's inventory has increased. It is expected that the glass will fluctuate weakly at a low level. The real - estate terminal demand remains weak, the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level for the same period, the capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and the "anti - involution" market sentiment has subsided [3][4].