大越期货尿素早报-20251117

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Date: November 17, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have rebounded again, while the comprehensive inventory has declined. The agricultural demand is weak in the short term, and the industrial demand is moderately weak. With the commissioning of new production capacities such as Xinjiang Zhongneng in the middle of the month, the supply - side pressure has increased again. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports has improved the export situation compared with the previous period, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. The domestic urea market is still in a state of oversupply. It is expected that the urea futures main contract will fluctuate today [4]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Daily production and operating rate are rising, inventory is falling. Agricultural demand is weak, industrial demand is moderately weak. New production capacities increase supply - side pressure. Export improvement boosts market sentiment. Overall, the domestic market is oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1600 (unchanged), and the fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is - 52, with a premium/discount ratio of - 3.3%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.566 million tons (- 92,000 tons), a bearish factor [4]. - Futures Market: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, a bullish signal [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is being reduced, a bearish signal [4]. - Expectation: The main contract of urea is expected to fluctuate today, considering the weak industrial and agricultural demand and the improved export situation [4]. - Leverage Factors: The positive factor is the improvement in exports; the negative factors are domestic oversupply and new production capacity commissioning. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. 2. Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Category | Details | |----|----| | Spot | The price of the spot delivery product is 1600 (unchanged); Shandong spot is 1600 (unchanged); Henan spot is 1610 (unchanged); FOB China is 2732 [6]. | | Futures | The price of the 01 contract is 1652 (- 6); the basis is - 52 (+ 6); UR05 is 1727 (- 4); UR09 is 1748 (- 6) [6]. | | Inventory | The number of warehouse receipts is 7183 (+ 225); UR comprehensive inventory is 1.566 million tons (- 92,000 tons); UR manufacturer inventory is 1.484 million tons (- 94,000 tons); UR port inventory is 82,000 tons (+ 3,000 tons) [6]. | 3. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | |----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----| | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]