菜粕早报-20251117

Report Overview - Report Title: Rapeseed Meal Morning Report - Report Date: November 17, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate within the range of 2440 - 2500. The market is in a wait - and - see mode for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. The short - term trend is affected by soybean meal and will maintain a range - bound pattern [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the report 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the post - holiday off - season, with short - term supply in the spot market expected to be tight and demand decreasing, which suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues may reduce short - term imports. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has found it to be established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offsetting each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may still rise, providing support for commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills on rapeseed meal. - Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports. - Main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - Trading Data: From November 6th to 14th, the average trading price of soybean meal ranged from 3078 - 3106 yuan/ton, and the trading volume ranged from 4.69 - 31.41 million tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal was 2600 - 2650 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 0. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal gradually increased from 442 to 506 yuan/ton [13]. - Price Data: From November 6th to 14th, the price of rapeseed meal futures main contract 2601 decreased from 2549 to 2490 yuan/ton, the far - month contract 2605 fluctuated slightly, and the rapeseed meal spot price (Fujian) decreased from 2650 to 2600 yuan/ton [15]. - Warehouse Receipt Data: From November 5th to 14th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 2955 to 2745, with a decrease of 200 on November 6th and remaining stable thereafter [17]. - Other Data: Imported rapeseed arrivals have no shipping schedule forecast for November, and import costs are affected by tariffs. Oil mill rapeseed inventory and rapeseed meal inventory are at low levels, and the rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills remains low. Aquatic fish prices have slightly declined, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [23][25][35]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Fundamentals: Rapeseed meal first rose and then fell, affected by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market, and the short - term trend is affected by soybean meal and maintains a range - bound pattern. It is rated as neutral [9]. - Basis: The spot price is 2600, the basis is 110, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [9]. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory is 17,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% compared to last week's 18,000 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45% compared to 22,000 tons in the same period last year, which is bullish [9]. - Market: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the direction is upward, which is bullish [9]. - Main Position: The main long positions have increased, but the funds have flowed out, which is bullish [9]. - Expectation: Rapeseed meal has fluctuated and declined due to the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. With the recent rumors of improved China - Canada trade relations, it has returned to a range - bound pattern in the short term, and subsequent developments should be monitored [9].