2025-11-17甲醇早报-20251117

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that the methanol price will mainly experience weak and volatile trends this week. The MA2601 contract is expected to trade between 2000 - 2080 yuan/ton. The mainland market is likely to remain in a stalemate, while the port market may show a bottom - strong oscillation, waiting for a rebound opportunity [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamental situation of methanol shows that demand lacks highlights and supply pressure persists. The mainland market is expected to be in a stalemate, and the port market may oscillate strongly at the bottom. The spot price in Jiangsu is 2070 yuan/ton, with a basis of 15 for the 01 contract, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. As of November 13, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 127.90 million tons, with an increase of 1.29 million tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas decreased by 3.97 million tons to 76.59 million tons. The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average. The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - term Concerns - Likely Positive Factors: Some plants have stopped production, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya; the methanol production in Iran has decreased, and the port inventory is at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has started production, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production this month; CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - Likely Negative Factors: Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; there is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at the port in the second half of the month; formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has significantly declined; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is currently actively selling; due to poor sales, the inventory of some plants in the production areas has accumulated [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - Price Data: In the spot market, the price of methanol in various regions has changed. For example, the price in Jiangsu decreased by 2.06% to 2047 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia, it decreased by 1.00% to 1980 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract decreased by 2.70% to 2055 yuan/ton. The basis, import spread, and price differences between regions have also changed [8][9]. - Inventory Data: As of November 13, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 127.90 million tons, with an increase of 1.29 million tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas decreased by 3.97 million tons to 76.59 million tons [5]. - Operating Rate Data: The weighted average operating rate of methanol nationwide decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions also decreased [8]. - Profit Data: The profits of different methanol production processes vary. The profit of coal - based methanol decreased by 24 yuan/ton, the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained unchanged, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - based methanol increased by 3 yuan/ton [20]. 4. Maintenance Status - Domestic Plants: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. The maintenance periods and losses vary by plant [56]. - Overseas Plants: Some overseas methanol plants, especially those in Iran, are in the process of restarting or have uncertain operating conditions. For example, ZPC in Iran has heard to have one unit restored, but it needs verification [57]. - Olefin Plants: Some olefin plants with supporting methanol production are under maintenance or have different operating conditions. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants stopped for maintenance on March 15, expected to last for 45 days [58].