白糖早报-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The global sugar market shows different supply - demand forecasts from various institutions, with some predicting a supply surplus and others a narrowing supply gap in the 2025/26 season. The domestic sugar market has relatively good consumption, reduced inventory, and increased syrup tariffs, but faces challenges from global production increases and potential import impacts. Near - term, the external sugar price is weak, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar is more resilient, with near - term contracts stronger than far - term ones. The 01 contract faces significant pressure around 5500 - 5600 and may fall back. Considering the approaching delivery, short - sellers are advised to enter the market at high prices in the 05 contract [4][5][6][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Different institutions have varying forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand situation. DATAGRO reduced the surplus forecast from 280 million tons to 100 million tons; Czarnikow raised the surplus forecast to 740 million tons; StoneX predicted a 277 - million - ton surplus; ISO estimated a 23.1 - million - ton supply gap, which is much smaller than before. In 2025, China's sugar production, sales, and import data also show certain trends. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - Basis: The Liuzhou spot price is 5730, with a basis of 260 for the 01 contract, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [5]. - Inventory: As of the end of August in the 24/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, which is neutral [5]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - Main Position: The net short position is increasing, and the main trend is bearish, which is bearish [5]. - Expectation: Recently, the external sugar price is weak, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar is more resilient. The 01 contract has significant pressure around 5500 and may fall back. Considering the approaching delivery, short - sellers are advised to enter the market at high prices in the 05 contract [5][8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Supply - Demand Forecast: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand. For example, ISO expects a supply gap of 20 million tons (basically balanced), StoneX predicts a 277 - million - ton surplus, Czarnikow forecasts a 620 - million - ton surplus (another mention is 750 million tons), Datagro anticipates a 153 - million - ton surplus, Covrig Analytics predicts a 420 - million - ton surplus, and Alvean/Louis Dreyfus expects a 40 - million - ton surplus [4][8][34]. - Domestic Sugar Production and Sales: In 2025, as of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the national cumulative sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 55 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 15 million tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 15.14 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.51 million tons [4][8]. - Domestic Sugar Market Data: The domestic sugar market shows trends in supply, demand, price, and inventory. For example, the national sugar production, consumption, import, and export data from 2024/25 to 2025/26, as well as the changes in international and domestic sugar prices [36]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.