棉花早报-20251117

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The export data of textiles in October was poor. Although a temporary agreement was reached in the Sino-US negotiations, reducing the subsequent export tariffs to the US by 10% compared to the previous level, the peak season for foreign trade orders has passed. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to experience short-term bearish fluctuations and decline, but due to cost support, the downside space is limited. Currently, it presents an opportunity for medium- to long-term long positions to enter the market at low prices and layout for distant contracts [6]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review No information provided in the content. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: In the 2025/26 season, the ICAC November report estimated a global cotton production of 25.4 million tons and consumption of 25 million tons; the USDA September report estimated production of 25.622 million tons, consumption of 25.872 million tons, and an ending inventory of 15.925 million tons. In October, textile and clothing exports were $22.62 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.63%. In September, China imported 100,000 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of 18.7%, and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year-on-year increase of 18.18%. The Ministry of Agriculture's November estimate for the 2025/26 season in China was a production of 6.6 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.45 million tons. The overall situation is neutral [5]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton was 14,806 yuan, with a basis of 1,356 yuan (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [7]. - Inventory: The Ministry of Agriculture's estimate for China's ending inventory in the 2025/26 season in November was 8.45 million tons, which is bearish [7]. - Market: The 20-day moving average was flat, and the K-line was below the 20-day moving average, which is bearish [7]. - Main Position: The position was bearish, with the net short position increasing, indicating a bearish trend for the main players [7]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided in the content. 4. Fundamental Data - USDA Global Production and Consumption Forecast (September): In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production was estimated at 25.622 million tons, an increase of 230,000 tons from the previous forecast; consumption was estimated at 25.872 million tons, an increase of 184,000 tons; and the ending inventory was estimated at 15.925 million tons, a decrease of 168,000 tons [13][14]. - China's Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet (Ministry of Agriculture, November): In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton production was estimated at 6.6 million tons, imports at 1.4 million tons, consumption at 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory at 8.45 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B was expected to range from 14,000 to 16,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index was expected to range from 75 to 100 cents per pound [16]. 5. Position Data No information provided in the content.