Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and adjusted. The main contract of Shanghai copper rose 1.12% to close at 86,900 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices, while the force majeure incident at an Indonesian copper mine and the sharp rise in precious metals supported copper prices. Domestically, it is the consumption off - season with general downstream consumption willingness. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading is mainly for rigid demand. The LME copper inventory was 135,725 tons last week with a slight decrease, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5,628 tons to 109,407 tons compared with the previous week. The copper market is expected to be in tight balance in 2024 and in surplus in 2025 [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper rose 1.12% to close at 86,900 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices, while the force majeure incident at an Indonesian copper mine and the sharp rise in precious metals supported copper prices. Domestically, it is the consumption off - season with general downstream consumption willingness. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading is mainly for rigid demand. The LME copper inventory was 135,725 tons last week with a slight decrease, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5,628 tons to 109,407 tons compared with the previous week [4]. 3.2 Fundamentals - PMI: No detailed information provided [10]. - Supply - demand balance: The copper market is expected to be in tight balance in 2024 and in surplus in 2025. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 - 2024, with a supply surplus of 110,000 tons in 2024 [12][15]. - Inventory: The LME copper inventory was 135,725 tons last week with a slight decrease, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5,628 tons to 109,407 tons compared with the previous week. The bonded - area inventory remained at a low level [4][19]. 3.3 Market Structure - Processing fees: Processing fees are at a low level [22]. - CFTC positions: Non - commercial net long positions in CFTC flowed out [24]. - Futures - spot price difference: No detailed information provided [27]. - Import profit: No detailed information provided [30]. - Warehouse receipts: No detailed information provided.
大越期货沪铜周报-20251117
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-11-17 03:24