贵金属早报-20251117

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Fed officials' hawkish remarks cooled market risk appetite, causing significant drops in gold and silver prices. Gold prices retreated, erasing last week's gains, and the premium of Shanghai gold converged to -2 yuan/gram. Silver premium widened to 340 yuan/gram, and the sentiment for Shanghai silver remained strong. With the U.S. government reopening, waiting for data verification, gold prices will continue to fluctuate at high levels, and silver prices will oscillate [4][5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: Fed officials' hawkish remarks cooled risk appetite, leading to a significant drop in gold prices. U.S. stock indexes showed mixed performance, European stock indexes declined across the board, U.S. bond yields rose, the dollar index increased, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 2.62% to $4084.4 per ounce. The basis was -2.4, indicating a spot discount to futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 810 kilograms to 90426 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the long position decreased [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, Fed officials' hawkish remarks led to a significant drop in silver prices. COMEX silver futures fell 5.21% to $50.4 per ounce. The basis was +9, indicating a spot premium to futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 7120 kilograms to 576894 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the long position increased [5][6]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The support for gold prices has weakened significantly as the concerns about the Fed's interest rate cut and China - U.S. tariff escalation have improved. However, due to the global turmoil after Trump's inauguration, the inflation expectation has shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to decline [10]. - Silver: Silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. The concerns about tariffs have a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase. The factors affecting silver prices are similar to those of gold, with both positive and negative factors coexisting [14]. 3. Today's Focus - 07:50: Japan's preliminary quarterly GDP growth rate in Q3; Time TBD: The sixth "Diversity, Equality, and Inclusion in the Fields of Economy, Finance, and Central Banking" conference jointly hosted by the European Central Bank, Bank of France, Bank of Spain, Bank of Italy, Bank of Canada, and Bank of England; Time TBD: The 2025 China International Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Industry Conference from November 17 - 20; 16:15: Speech by the vice - president of the European Central Bank, de Guindos; 21:30: U.S. November New York Fed Manufacturing Index; 22:00: Welcome speech by FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams at the 2025 Governance and Culture Reform Conference; 22:30: Speech by Fed Vice - Chairman Jefferson; 22:45: Speech by the chief economist of the European Central Bank, Lane; 23:00: U.S. August construction spending; Next day 02:00: Fireside chat hosted by Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari; Next day 04:35: Speech by Fed Governor Waller [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The basis was -2.4, indicating a spot discount to futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 810 kilograms to 90426 kilograms [4]. - Silver: The basis was +9, indicating a spot premium to futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 7120 kilograms to 576894 kilograms [6]. 5. Position Data - Gold: The main net position was long, but the long position decreased. The net long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai gold increased by 3308 to 105420. SPDR Gold ETF holdings fluctuated and decreased [4][32]. - Silver: The main net position was long, and the long position increased. The net long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai silver increased by 8879 to 112852. Silver ETF holdings increased slightly and were still higher than the same period in the past two years. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts continued to decrease and were at the lowest level in the past six years, while COMEX silver warehouse receipts decreased slightly [6][34][43].