PTA&MEG早报-20251117

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the spot basis has been low recently, with reduced trader activity and few bids from polyester factories. However, supported by the cost side and the cancellation of BIS certification in India, the PTA spot price has shown a generally strong and volatile trend. The processing margin remains low, and it is expected to fluctuate following the cost side in the short term, with the spot basis fluctuating within a certain range. Attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - For MEG, the price center has been oscillating strongly, and the basis has been declining. The main port of ethylene glycol has unloaded smoothly this week, and it is expected that the port inventory will continue to rise early next week. Fundamentally, there is still pressure for ethylene glycol to accumulate inventory in the long - term, but the situation has improved in the near - term due to a reduction in partial supply. The future supply changes should be monitored. As the port inventory rises, the liquidity of on - site goods increases, and the ethylene glycol spot basis is expected to weaken. Attention should be paid to the outflow speed of warehouse receipts in northern Jiangsu. In the short term, the price center of ethylene glycol will be adjusted widely, but there is still upward pressure [7]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - There is no specific content about the previous day's review in the provided text. 2.每日提示 - PTA: - Fundamentals: On Friday, the mainstream negotiation and transaction price in November was around a discount of 75 to the 01 contract, with some slightly lower. The price negotiation range was around 4610 - 4660. There was a transaction at 01 - 71 at the beginning of December. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 75, showing a neutral situation. - Basis: The spot price is 4637, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 63, with the futures price higher than the spot price, showing a neutral situation. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.97 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period, showing a positive situation. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a positive situation. - Main force position: The net long position is increasing, showing a positive situation [5]. - MEG: - Fundamentals: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol oscillated strongly, and the basis declined. During the night session, ethylene glycol opened higher and moved up. The mainstream spot negotiation was around a premium of 55 - 60 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. During the day, the ethylene glycol disk remained high and strong, and the spot basis continued to weaken. In the afternoon, the transaction was around a premium of 46 - 48 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. In terms of US dollars, the center of the ethylene glycol outer market moved up, and the mainstream negotiation of recent shipments was around 467 - 470 US dollars/ton. There was a transaction of Taiwan tender goods at around 475 US dollars/ton, with a cargo volume of 5000 tons. The negotiation ranges for domestic and foreign market transactions are 3957 - 4003 yuan/ton and 467 - 473 US dollars/ton respectively, showing a neutral situation. - Basis: The spot price is 3982, and the basis of the 01 contract is 60, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 62.2 tons, an increase of 5.7 tons compared to the previous period, showing a negative situation. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a negative situation. - Main force position: The main force has a net short position, and the long position has turned to a short position, showing a negative situation [7][8]. 3.今日关注 - There is no specific content about what to focus on today in the provided text. 4.基本面数据 - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the supply - demand situation of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including capacity, production, import, export, consumption, and inventory data, as well as the year - on - year changes in supply and demand and the inventory - consumption ratio [10]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, consumption, port inventory, and inventory changes, as well as the year - on - year changes in supply and demand [11]. - Price Data: It includes the prices of various products such as naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, polyester fibers, and their futures prices, as well as basis and profit data on November 14 and 13, 2025 [12]. 5.价格 - There are price trend charts for various products such as PET bottle chips (including market price, production gross profit, operating rate, and inventory), PTA (including basis, inter - month spread), MEG (including basis, inter - month spread), and spot spreads (TA - EG spot spread, p - xylene processing spread) from 2021 to 2025 [13][15][24][30][37]. 6.库存分析 - There are inventory trend charts for various products such as PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory, PET chip factory inventory, and polyester fiber inventory from 2021 to 2025 [40][41][43][45]. 7.聚酯上游开工 - There are operating rate trend charts for upstream products in the polyester industry, including PTA, p - xylene, and ethylene glycol (comprehensive) from 2021 to 2025 [52][53][55]. 8.聚酯下游开工 - There are operating rate trend charts for downstream products in the polyester industry, including the capacity utilization rate of polyester in China and the operating rate of textile enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang from 2021 to 2025 [56][57][58]. 9. PTA加工费 - There is a trend chart of PTA processing fees in China from 2022 to 2025 [59][60]. 10. MEG利润 - There are profit trend charts for different production methods of MEG (methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, ethylene - based) in China from 2022 to 2025 [61][62]. 11.聚酯纤维利润 - There are profit trend charts for polyester fiber short - fiber, DTY, POY, and FDY in China from 2022 to 2025 [64][66][67][69].