大越期货燃料油周报-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, crude oil showed a trend of rising first and then falling, while Singapore fuel oil prices fluctuated narrowly. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakened, and that of high - sulfur fuel oil remained stable, but the relatively abundant supply pressured prices. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,609 yuan/ton, down 3.91% for the week, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,251 yuan/ton, down 0.70% for the week [4]. - The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Asia increased, leading to a weakening of the market structure. Singapore is expected to receive about 2.9 - 3 million tons of low - sulfur fuel oil arbitrage cargo from the West in November. The overall sentiment in the Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market is still pessimistic, and sufficient inventory is expected to suppress the market fundamentals for the rest of the year, with no obvious signs of recovery in downstream bunker demand. The market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil in Asia remained at the current level. Although the stable arrival of shipments from the Middle East led to an abundant supply, relatively healthy downstream bunker demand still supported the high - sulfur fuel oil market. However, high freight rates may lead to a tightening of arrivals in December, and the high - low sulfur price spread remains at a high level and its contraction still needs time. Operationally, high - sulfur fuel oil should be traded in the range of 2,550 - 2,750 yuan/ton in the short term, and low - sulfur fuel oil in the range of 3,200 - 3,350 yuan/ton in the short term [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - on - Week Viewpoints - Crude oil showed a rising - then - falling trend last week, and Singapore fuel oil prices fluctuated narrowly. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakened, and that of high - sulfur fuel oil remained stable. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,609 yuan/ton, down 3.91% for the week, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,251 yuan/ton, down 0.70% for the week. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Asia increased, and the market sentiment was pessimistic. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil was also abundant, but downstream demand provided support. High - sulfur fuel oil should be traded in the range of 2,550 - 2,750 yuan/ton in the short term, and low - sulfur fuel oil in the range of 3,200 - 3,350 yuan/ton in the short term [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Prices: The FU main contract's previous value was 2,744 yuan/ton, the current value is 2,655 yuan/ton, down 89 yuan/ton or 3.25%. The LU main contract's previous value was 3,290 yuan/ton, the current value is 3,255 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton or 1.05% [5]. - Spot Prices: The prices of various types of fuel oil in Zhoushan, Singapore, and the Middle East showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of high - sulfur fuel oil in Zhoushan increased from 459.00 US dollars to 466.00 US dollars, an increase of 7.00 US dollars or 1.53%, while the price of Singapore diesel decreased from 704.06 US dollars to 677.18 US dollars, a decrease of 26.88 US dollars or 3.82% [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Consumption Data: There are data on Singapore fuel oil consumption, Chinese fuel oil consumption, and Shandong fuel oil coking profit margins from 2021 - 2025, presented in graphical form [7][8][9]. 3.4 Spread Data - No specific spread data analysis content provided 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore Fuel Oil Inventory: From August 27th to November 12th, Singapore's fuel oil inventory showed fluctuations. For example, on October 22nd, the inventory increased by 5.09 million barrels to 27.449 million barrels, and on October 29th, it decreased by 6.52 million barrels to 20.929 million barrels [12].