大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251117

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. The overall fundamentals are bearish due to oversupply, but there are also some bullish factors such as potential oil price rebounds and Sino - US relations easing [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. After the Sino - US meeting, some restrictions were lifted, and OPEC+ adjusted the oil market from undersupply to oversupply, causing oil prices to fall. The peak demand season for agricultural films continues, but demand is starting to decline in some areas, and other film types have mainly rigid demand. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery goods is 6920 (+70), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 67, with a premium ratio of 1.0%, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 57.9 million tons (+3.9), which is bearish [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. With an oversupply in the fundamentals, the peak demand season for agricultural films continues but is weakening in some areas, and the industrial inventory is moderately high [4]. - Bullish Factors: New sanctions on Russian oil may lead to an oil price rebound, and the Sino - US talks have achieved a phased easing [5]. - Bearish Factors: Demand is weaker year - on - year, and there are many new production launches in the fourth quarter [5]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in October was 49, down 0.8 percentage points. After the Sino - US meeting, relevant measures were adjusted, and the oil price fell. The peak season for plastic weaving is nearing the end, while the demand for pipes is improving. The current spot price of PP delivery goods is 6470 (-0), with overall bearish fundamentals [6]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 4, with a premium ratio of - 0.1%, which is neutral [6]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 62 million tons (+2), which is bearish [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6]. - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [6]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate. With an oversupply in the fundamentals, the peak season for plastic weaving is ending, and the demand for pipes is improving, and the industrial inventory is moderately high [6]. - Bullish Factors: New sanctions on Russian oil may lead to an oil price rebound, and the Sino - US talks have achieved a phased easing [7]. - Bearish Factors: Demand is weaker year - on - year, and there are many new production launches in the fourth quarter [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption generally showed an increasing trend, while the import dependence decreased. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to reach 4319.5 [13]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption also generally increased, and the import dependence decreased. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to reach 4906 [15].