沪镍、不锈钢周报-20251117

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The nickel price fluctuated weakly this week, facing downward pressure, with continuous increase in short - position of the main contract. In the long - term, the supply of primary nickel is strong, and the surplus pattern remains unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, the overall boost to the nickel market is limited [8]. - The stainless - steel market shows an oversupply situation, with rising inventory and prices under downward pressure [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - Nickel Futures: The main contract of Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate weakly, facing downward pressure, with certain support at the previous low [9]. - Stainless - steel Futures: The main contract of stainless steel is under downward pressure, running weakly, and testing the support of the previous low [10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Weekly Price Changes in the Industry Chain - Nickel Ore: The prices of red - laterite nickel ore with NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% and NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% remained unchanged from last week, with a 0.00% change [13]. - Electrolytic Nickel: The prices of Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan's ex - factory price all decreased compared to last week, with declines of - 0.56%, - 1.40%, and - 1.30% respectively [14]. - Nickel Iron: The price of low - grade nickel iron in Shandong remained stable, while the price of high - grade nickel iron decreased by - 1.08% [13]. - Stainless Steel: The price of 304 stainless steel decreased by - 0.83% compared to last week [14]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market - Price and Freight: Nickel ore prices remained stable, and ocean freight was the same as last week [17]. - Inventory: As of November 14, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 15.0949 million wet tons, an increase of 1.88% from the previous period. The inventory of Philippine nickel ore increased by 1.12%, and that of other countries' nickel ore increased by 20.5% [17]. - Import: In September 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 6.1145 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.66% and a year - on - year increase of 33.91%. The cumulative import volume from January to September 2025 was 32.2481 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.77% [17]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market - Price and Trading: Nickel prices were under downward pressure. After the price dropped below 120,000, the wait - and - see sentiment increased, but near the previous low, downstream procurement became more active [26]. - Supply and Demand: In the long - term, both supply and demand will continue to increase, but the surplus pattern will not change. The substitution of ternary batteries is becoming more obvious, and the growth of nickel demand is slowing down [27]. - Production: In October 2025, China's refined nickel production was 33,345 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.38% and a year - on - year increase of 8.09%. The estimated production in November 2025 was 32,710 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.90% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.39% [31]. - Import and Export: In September 2025, China's refined nickel import volume was 28,367.371 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.29% and a year - on - year increase of 407.65%. The export volume was 14,112.095 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.22% and a year - on - year increase of 36.94% [34]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 1,014 tons to 252,090 tons, while SHFE inventory increased by 3,386 tons to 40,573 tons [40]. 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market - Price: The price of low - grade nickel iron remained stable, while the price of high - grade nickel iron decreased [47]. - Production: In October 2025, China's nickel pig iron actual production was 22,900 tons of metal, a month - on - month increase of 5.43% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.5% [49]. - Import: In September 2025, China's nickel iron import volume was 1.085 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.2% and a year - on - year increase of 47.2%. The cumulative import volume from January to September 2025 was 8.353 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.3% [52]. - Inventory: In October, the tradable inventory of nickel iron was 209,100 physical tons, equivalent to 19,800 tons of nickel [55]. 3.2.5 Stainless - steel Market - Price: The average price of 304 stainless steel in four regions decreased by 112.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [62]. - Production: In October, the stainless - steel crude - steel production was 3.4267 million tons, with the 300 - series production increasing by 1.43% month - on - month [65]. - Import and Export: The latest stainless - steel import volume was 120,300 tons, and the export volume was 418,500 tons [68]. - Inventory: As of November 14, the national stainless - steel inventory was 1.071 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,500 tons, with the 300 - series inventory increasing by 20,400 tons [71]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - In October 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% and 20% respectively. From January to October, the cumulative production and sales were 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 33.1% and 32.7% respectively [75]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price continued to be under pressure, with a significant increase in positions, and the short - side main force exerted its strength. The MACD indicator showed green bars spreading, indicating a downward trend. The KDJ entered the oversold area, suggesting a possible need for a rebound. Overall, it is expected to run weakly in a volatile manner and test the support of the previous low [81]. 3.4 Comprehensive Summary of the Industrial Chain - Nickel Ore: Neutral. The price is stable, and the supply from Indonesia is expected to be abundant, but the supply may slow down due to the approaching rainy season [84]. - Nickel Iron: Neutral. The price is stable with a slight decline, and the cost line continues to drop [84]. - Refined Nickel: Slightly bearish. The long - term surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the inventory continues to accumulate [84]. - Stainless Steel: Slightly bearish. The inventory is rising, and the supply is in excess [84]. - New Energy: Slightly bearish. The production data are good, but the substitution of ternary batteries continues [84].