棉花周报（11.10-11.14）-20251117

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, cotton prices showed a short - term oscillatory decline. Although there was a short - term agreement in Sino - US negotiations and the subsequent export tariff to the US was reduced by 10%, the peak season for foreign trade orders has passed. The poor textile export data in October also contributed to the decline. However, due to cost support, the downside space is limited. It is currently an opportunity for medium - to - long - term long positions to enter the market at low prices and layout far - month contracts [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day Review No specific content for this part was found in the provided text. 3.2 Daily Prompt No specific content for this part was found in the provided text. 3.3 Today's Focus No specific content for this part was found in the provided text. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Production and Consumption Forecasts: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 cotton production and consumption. For example, ICAC's 11 - month report shows a production of 25.4 million tons and consumption of 25 million tons; USDA's 9 - month report indicates a production of 25.622 million tons, consumption of 25.872 million tons, and an ending inventory of 15.925 million tons; the Rural Ministry's November forecast shows a production of 6.6 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.45 million tons [4]. - Export and Import Data: In October, textile and clothing exports were $22.262 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 12.63%. In September, China imported 1 million tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%, and imported 1.3 million tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 18.18% [4]. - Market Influencing Factors: - Positive Factors: The purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased, and the commercial inventory is lower than the same period last year. The export tariff to the US has been reduced by 10% [5]. - Negative Factors: Overall foreign trade orders have declined, inventory has increased, new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and it is currently the traditional off - season for consumption [6]. 3.5 Position Data No specific content for this part was found in the provided text.