白糖周报（11.10-11.14）-20251117

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, sugar prices rose first and then fell. The main contract 01 rebounded but was pressured and declined above 5500. Near - term domestic Zhengzhou sugar is more resilient than foreign sugar, and the near - month contracts are stronger than the far - month ones. The 01 contract faces significant pressure around 5500. Considering the approaching delivery, short - sellers are advised to short at high prices on the 05 contract [4][5]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the formula of American cola to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, supply surplus in the new season, the foreign sugar price dropping to around 14 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window leading to increased import impact [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, sugar prices rose first and then fell. The main contract 01 rebounded but was pressured and declined above 5500. Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. DATAGRO expects the global sugar surplus to be adjusted down from 2.8 million tons to 1 million tons; Czarnikow raises the expected surplus to 7.4 million tons; StoneX expects a surplus of 2.77 million tons; ISO expects a supply gap of 231,000 tons, which is significantly reduced compared to the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons, and imported 151,400 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Near - term foreign sugar prices are weak, while domestic Zhengzhou sugar is relatively resilient. The 01 contract has strong pressure around 5500 and has declined under pressure. Considering the approaching delivery, short - sellers are advised to short at high prices on the 05 contract [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. For example, ISO expects the supply gap to narrow to 200,000 tons; StoneX expects a surplus of 2.77 million tons; Czarnikow expects a surplus of 6.2 million tons (another mention is 7.5 million tons); Datagro expects a surplus of 1.53 million tons; Covrig Analytics expects a surplus of 4.2 million tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus expects a surplus of 400,000 tons; Green Pool expects a surplus of 1.15 million tons [34]. - China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, the sugarcane and beet planting areas, yields, sugar production, imports, consumption, exports, and price ranges are all presented. It is estimated that the sugar production in 2025/26 will be 11.7 million tons, imports will be 5 million tons, consumption will be 15.7 million tons, and the balance change will be 820,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [36]. - Import Cost: As of the end of October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imports was about 5086 yuan per ton. Due to the continuous decline of international sugar prices, the import profit is considerable [42]. 3.5 Position Data No information is provided in the report.